Die unerträgliche Fragilität des libanesischen Waffenstillstandsabkommens – Eine vereinbarte Kampfpause zwischen Israel und der Hisbollah wurde wiederholt verletzt

By Sebastian Shehadi:

*[…] The ceasefire’s success also very much depends on the ability of the Lebanese national army – known as the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) – to work with the UN peacekeeping troops and enforce Hezbollah’s military withdrawal from south of the Litani, something that has not been achieved since Hezbollah first emerge in the 1980s during Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon between 1985 to 2000.*

*Yet the LAF is in “an impossible situation,” according to Nadim. On the one hand, Hezbollah can easily accuse it of being Israel’s collaborator; on the other, it is expected to satisfy Israeli and Western expectations around 1701, more specifically, overseeing the removal of Hezbollah’s military south of the Litani.*

*In other words, in just two months, Lebanon and the LAF must achieve an agreement that has evaded success for nearly 20 years.*

*“After decades of being on the sidelines and doing, frankly, very little, the LAF suddenly finds itself being forced to really involve itself,” says Nadim. This is a “historic and [unprecedented] test” for the army, which has always stayed out of the country’s miasma of sectarian and geopolitical conflicts and acted, instead, as a neutral and unifying buffer between Lebanon’s numerous political parties and militias.*

*The army’s Involvement, however, comes with news risks, such as Hezbollah and the LAF – as well as Israel and the LAF – being drawn into conflict for the first time ever. Either way, both eventualities would end poorly for the Lebanese army, which is, by far, the weakest, militarily speaking. “The LAF is incapable of controlling Hezbollah’s arms and cannot disarm it. Full stop. Meanwhile, the UN troops only have an observer mandate, not an implementation mandate,” says Nadim.*

*“Sooner or later, Hezbollah will start arming itself north of the Litani river, which it will claim is not in breach of 1701. In short: the situation down south is not resolved. The current ceasefire, however long it lasts, is just a temporary solution.” […]*