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    COVIDs Überraschung zum Jahresende


    COVIDs Überraschung zum Jahresende

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2024/12/covid-christmas-winter-wave/681133/

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    1. johnnierockit on

      Since the pandemic began, the week between Christmas and New Year’s has coincided with the dreaded “winter wave.” But something weird is happening this year.

      From Sept through Nov, levels of the virus in wastewater, one of the most reliable metrics now that cases are no longer tracked, were unusually low. At various points over that span, hospitalizations & deaths also neared all-time lows. That’s not to say we are in for a COVID-less Christmas.

      CDC data the past 2 weeks shows a sharp increase of viral activity in wastewater. Whether the start of a winter wave remains unclear, but even if so, the timing is all off. Last year, the winter wave neared its peak at Xmas. This time around, the wave—if there is one—is only just getting started.

      The nine peaks that have occurred since COVID emerged “were not predicted at all by season,” he told me. Winter waves have less to do with winter, Osterholm said, and more to do with the unpredictable emergence of new variants overlaid on waning immunity.

      Squaring the notion that COVID doesn’t follow seasonal patterns with its recent track record of ruining the holidays is not easy. Part of the confusion stems from the expectation that the virus should behave like other respiratory-season bugs.

      The flu and RSV respiratory syncytial virus typically spikes in the winter, and why shots are offered in the fall. SARS-CoV-2 is not a typical RSV, even though updated COVID vaccines are recommended in advance of the winter virus season. As expected, flu and RSV are currently on the rise.

      In a way, COVID’s weird timing this year is fortuitous because it means the “peak season will likely be out of sync with flu,” reducing the burden on hospitals, Rivers said. After nearly five years of living with this virus, you might expect that its behavior would be easier to predict.

      Abridged (shortened) article thread ⬇️ 5 min

      [https://bsky.app/profile/johnhatchard.bsky.social/post/3ldsfkpuvqx2l](https://bsky.app/profile/johnhatchard.bsky.social/post/3ldsfkpuvqx2l)

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