Anders Puck Nielsen: Was ist Russlands Plan für den Sieg?

Submission Statement:

u/ChornWork2 [posted a link](https://old.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/1hi0r6x/putin_says_russia_is_ready_to_compromise_with/m2w780o/) to this video by Danish naval officer and defence analyst Anders Puck Nielsen in the “Putin says Russia is ready to compromise with Trump on Ukraine war” thread, but the argument Nielsen is making in relation to possible peace negotiations in the Ukrainian conflict is important and topical, and deserves wider discussion, so I’m putting it here.

Nielsen’s basic argument is that many in the West mistakenly believe that a stable peace agreement hinges on control of territory, and the basis for a viable peace deal would therefore be Ukraine agreeing to extend at least de facto recognition of the four oblasts Russia has annexed. He argues however that this not only misidentifies Putin’s main war aim, which to destabilize Ukraine politically so it can install a pro Russian puppet government, but could well end up playing into Putin’s hands by giving him a peace deal that would facilitate such subversion by withholding hard security guarantees that would be essential to securing postwar Ukraine from future Russian aggression, whether overt or covert. If Nielsen’s analysis is correct, then any peace deal that doesn’t address the security needs of postwar Ukraine is likely to only be an interregnum before Russia consolidates political control over the country.

It is interesting to note that this video was posted a week ago, while yesterday both NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and EU High Representative on Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas cautioned against a “rush to peace”, with Kallas specifically calling out Western countries on the need to solidify a clear and credible position on security guarantees for Ukraine.

As an aside Nielsen also points out the underappreciated fact that Russia’s own resources are not unlimited, and likely to become considerably more acute in 2025. On that topic Perun recently posted [an excellent video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzR8BacYS6U) on the depletion of Russian materiel reserves. The Russian economy is also overheating and the government is running out of money, so Russia will not be able to sustain the current tempo of operations indefinitely.

So what’s the solution? Wait until Russia’s war effort and economy evaporate? The only way Ukraine can gain an upper hand, in my opinion, is the ability to strike with much greater intensity: oil infrastructure, arms manufacturing plants, and other key industries. Perhaps NATO troops could be deployed in western Ukraine, and of course, more pressure is needed regarding sanctions (secondary sanctions). Europe has to go all in at this point. Personally, I think a ceasefire or peace treaty is unlikely in the near future.