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1 Comment
Welcome to the [Peanut Gallery](https://www.nuttyspectacle.com/)! Today I want to talk about air defense.
Please remember that I know nothing.
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**[Ukraine:](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-29-2024)**
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I love Ukraine. They spent this war fighting from the bottom, reaching and stretching for every advantage, and they’ve done it for so long that I fear some have begun to lose hope. Don’t worry, I cast no shame, for after three years it’s perfectly natural. War exhausts the best of us. But Ukraine is doing well. They can win this war.
>Ukrainian forces conducted a series of strikes against four Russian air defense systems and radars in occupied Ukraine and two oil depots in Russia on November 28 and 29.
Did you know radar systems require complex microelectronics to manufacture? Did you know Russia can’t manufacture these items at scale, necessitating their import? Did you know all of those complex microelectronics are subject to western sanctions? Did you know said sanctions are causing a severe shortage of these microelectronics and that replacing these radar systems is effectively impossible for the Russian Federation? If so, great, and if not, now you do. Isn’t learning fun?
Four radars down! Their irreplaceability is probably why Ukraine targeted them.
Ukrainian Intelligence (GUR) reports they knocked out a Zoopark radar system, a Buk-M3 air defense system, a Podylot mobile radar system—this thing works in conjunction with S-300/400 systems—and the capstone: an S-400 air defense system in Crimea, distinct from the S-400 Ukraine knocked out last week in Kursk. All of this adds up to one big-ass hole punched in Russia’s air defense network.
Most interesting to me is how Ukraine knocked these systems out. Both the Zoopark and the Buk-M3 were annihilated by drones—and because this is the future, here are the videos: [Zoopark](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineConflict/comments/1h2j94y/ukrainian_scouts_destroyed_the_russian_radar/) and [Buk-M3] (https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1h2kvt7/the_ukrainian_unmanned_aerial_vehicle_regiment/). Two attacks by drones against air defense assets far, far behind the front line. These aren’t videos of drones destroying tanks, folks. Zoopark costs $23 million and Ukraine knocked it out with something a fraction of its value. These two air defense systems are important destructions and could have easily justified an ATACMs or Storm Shadow. Instead Ukraine used domestically produced drones. The potential for these weapons is enormous.
Unfortunately Russia is beginning to see the value of them as well.
>The Russian military is considering establishing a separate service branch for unmanned systems, likely as part of the Russian MoD’s in a belated effort to catch up to the establishment of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) in February 2024.
Both Ukraine and Russia feel the necessity to establish an unmanned systems branch, so I hope NATO is taking notes. This will be on the test.
All I can say is…okay, Russia. Let’s see you implement it.
>The Russian military’s efforts to reorganize informal drone detachments into centralized, specialized military units are already introducing significant dysfunction into the Russian military.
Oh look. It’s not going well. The problems are many fold—honestly, where do I begin?
Let’s start with the lack of a joint Russian communications system which allows the various branches of its military to coordinate their findings effectively. Drone pilots need to converse between artillery and infantry of multiple different units quickly and succinctly for their work to have value. ISW cites a Russian milblogger who complains that currently there is no such system. Various units apparently speak using adhoc systems of communication. There’s no central command responsible for collating and verifying the veracity of drone operator reports.
Without a joint Russian communications system, drone operator’s utility would be limited to the communication channels they cut to individual officers. These officers may or may not act on the information provided. It definitely wouldn’t be centralized and acted upon. It’s a huge problem for coordination, but it renders a separate unit dedicated to unmanned weapons completely ineffective.
Next, we should talk about how Russia treats its specialists. Moscow routinely sends their tankers, engineers, artillery, and signal specialists out on assaults. Russia treats specialists like general infantry, and that takes their valuable training and destroys it. It takes time to train a new engineer, a new artillery specialist, a new mechanic, and it definitely takes time to train a new drone operator. If drone operators are treated like the other specialists, then it will be impossible for drone operators to develop into a fully-fledged and distinct arm of the Russian military.
Overall, I think Russia’s decision to create a branched for unmanned systems is a good idea. But the problem is the rest of the Russian military. They lack respect for their specialists and the coordination necessary to take full advantage of an unmanned systems branch. Russia is putting the cart before the horse. These need to solve the above two problems before they can consider separating drone operators from the rest of the army. They risk destroying what is already working for very little gain.
>Russian forces conducted a large series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine’s energy grid and major defense industrial facilities on the nights of November 27 to 28 and 28 to 29.
Drones on every bullet point. This is a new revolution of war, folks. Buckle up.
Russia hurled another…a lot. They hurled another a lot of drones. That’s the unit of measurement. Today it means something like 229 Shahed drones spread across two days. They were also quite a few K-101 cruise missiles mixed into the strike package, and some Kaliber-cruise missiles out of the Black Sea and some S-300s thrown in to make life difficult.
I wish I could say Ukraine shot down all of them. But they didn’t. About ten missiles and drones got through. They targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure, like they have been targeting for the last three years.
Notice the distinction. Ukrainian drones knocked out a Russian oil depot and several air defense systems. Russian drones targeted civilian power and infrastructure. One of those types of attacks will win the war. The other will make people miserable. I’ll let you decide which is which.
>Georgians protested in Tbilisi, Georgia in response to an initiative by the ruling pro-Kremlin Georgian Dream party to delay European Union (EU) accession negotiations, prompting the Russian information space to resurrect information operations falsely framing the protests and Georgian opposition parties as potential threats to Georgian sovereignty.
Protests erupted in Georgia over a decision to delay EU accession talks until 2028 for…no good reason. There is no reason to delay, nor is there a reason to hand back European money designed to facilitate this process. This decision was made by the illegitimate Georgian parliament, falsely elected during the last election, and on the Kremlin’s payroll. This is Putin’s government doing what Putin demands, not the Georgian people. We see evidence of this in the protests and their ever-increasing violence. Today it was riot police and tear gas, but we are slowly inching towards true revolution.
Georgia and Ukraine do not wish to be part of Putin’s empire. The people resist.
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>Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Head off the Department of Combating Crimes Committed in Conditions of Armed Conflict, Yuri Bilousov, reported on November 1 that Russian forces have executed at least 109 Ukrainian POWs since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 and that Russian forces have intensified the number of POW executions they commit in 2024.
[Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.](https://u24.gov.ua/)
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‘Q’ for the Community:
* Do you think Georgia will have enough strength to rip itself free from Putin’s influence? Why or why not?
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* Join the conversation on /r/TheNuttySpectacle!