If the cpc outperforms their polling, like in the Toronto St Paul byelection, they could win an actual majority of votes. What a sendoff for Trudeau.
Omnivirus on
It’s actually pretty wild that the majority of the Liberal party isn’t actively pushing Trudeau out at this point.
Even if you assume they have internal polling that shows them doing better, just how much better can it be than this? Keeping Trudeau around basically cedes the election to the Conservatives.
Dumping Trudeau probably doesn’t make a huge difference ultimately but at least if they got a leader completely unassociated with his inner circle they might, and it’s a very very slight might, have a chance.
Medea_From_Colchis on
This poll is a pretty big outlier from others. +5 CPC from Leger and Nanos, and +4 from Abascus. For the Liberals, it is -9 from Leger, -6 from Nanos, and -4 from Abascus. So, I don’t know about this one quiet yet. Nanos released today; Abascus did a few days ago, and Leger did about 10 days ago. It will be interesting to see Leger’s next poll to see if it finds similar results to this or the others.
ExDerpusGloria on
Probably a polling error, but even an error still demonstrates how dire things are for the Liberals. Plugging this in to the 338 simulator, the Liberal slider doesn’t even go to 17 and still spits out only 20 seats.
More concerning is how nothing seems to be moving the dial. Trump, security clearances, abortion, and podcast appearances aren’t improving the Liberal fortunes.
jonlmbs on
Well I’m guessing liberal internal polls showing similar hence the desperate vote buying $250 cheques policy announcement
Canada_for_gold on
It’s crazy to me because talking to people in real life between everyone I’ve talked to with a vast array of viewpoints I’ve spoken to maybe 2-3 people out of dozens that say they’re voting LPC. Most people have either told me CPC or NDP, yet my riding is predicted to go Liberal? I don’t buy it. I feel as though this poll is in the margin of error and will be close to this result of a LPC 17.
Surprisetrextoy on
Absolutely nothing was learned from the US election and some of the EU ones that went similarly. Nothing. Head in sand.
Agreeable_Umpire5728 on
Remember a couple weeks ago when we went through our regular “looks like the Liberals are gaining some momentum” thread after the good Nanos polls?
Looking at those numbers, this most recent poll is entirely within the MOE of the previous poll. As such, it might indicate a *slight* uptick in support for the CPC at the expense of the LPC and NDP, but we should probably interpret this as relatively flat movement.
AfroBlue90 on
Maybe now we can stop pretending Trump will send Canadians rushing back to the Liberal party. I don’t think these cheques will do much either. People will take what the government gives, but won’t vote for them.
dagthegnome on
Almost certainly an outlier, but so are Nanos and EKOS in the other direction, so the aggregated trend line is likely still pretty accurate.
11 Comments
If the cpc outperforms their polling, like in the Toronto St Paul byelection, they could win an actual majority of votes. What a sendoff for Trudeau.
It’s actually pretty wild that the majority of the Liberal party isn’t actively pushing Trudeau out at this point.
Even if you assume they have internal polling that shows them doing better, just how much better can it be than this? Keeping Trudeau around basically cedes the election to the Conservatives.
Dumping Trudeau probably doesn’t make a huge difference ultimately but at least if they got a leader completely unassociated with his inner circle they might, and it’s a very very slight might, have a chance.
This poll is a pretty big outlier from others. +5 CPC from Leger and Nanos, and +4 from Abascus. For the Liberals, it is -9 from Leger, -6 from Nanos, and -4 from Abascus. So, I don’t know about this one quiet yet. Nanos released today; Abascus did a few days ago, and Leger did about 10 days ago. It will be interesting to see Leger’s next poll to see if it finds similar results to this or the others.
Probably a polling error, but even an error still demonstrates how dire things are for the Liberals. Plugging this in to the 338 simulator, the Liberal slider doesn’t even go to 17 and still spits out only 20 seats.
More concerning is how nothing seems to be moving the dial. Trump, security clearances, abortion, and podcast appearances aren’t improving the Liberal fortunes.
Well I’m guessing liberal internal polls showing similar hence the desperate vote buying $250 cheques policy announcement
It’s crazy to me because talking to people in real life between everyone I’ve talked to with a vast array of viewpoints I’ve spoken to maybe 2-3 people out of dozens that say they’re voting LPC. Most people have either told me CPC or NDP, yet my riding is predicted to go Liberal? I don’t buy it. I feel as though this poll is in the margin of error and will be close to this result of a LPC 17.
Absolutely nothing was learned from the US election and some of the EU ones that went similarly. Nothing. Head in sand.
Remember a couple weeks ago when we went through our regular “looks like the Liberals are gaining some momentum” thread after the good Nanos polls?
I really encourage people to look at the pollster’s *second* most recent poll when they release a new one. It helps to contextualize the amount of movement we are seeing. To which, the last Mainstreet poll was from [September 30](https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/66c8dfb086a015b3b519e988/66fc2df9e4bce6b160216487_Mainstreet_Canada_Sept_2024_Public.pdf):
Party | Percent
—|—
CPC | 44
LPC | 19
NDP | 20
BQ | 8
GPC | 3
PPC | 3
n = 1091
MOE = ±3
—
Looking at those numbers, this most recent poll is entirely within the MOE of the previous poll. As such, it might indicate a *slight* uptick in support for the CPC at the expense of the LPC and NDP, but we should probably interpret this as relatively flat movement.
Maybe now we can stop pretending Trump will send Canadians rushing back to the Liberal party. I don’t think these cheques will do much either. People will take what the government gives, but won’t vote for them.
Almost certainly an outlier, but so are Nanos and EKOS in the other direction, so the aggregated trend line is likely still pretty accurate.