Das Forschungsteam kam zu dem Ergebnis, dass sich die jährliche Sterblichkeitsrate im Zusammenhang mit Luftverschmutzung und extremen Temperaturen unter der wahrscheinlichsten Prognose bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts verfünffachen und 30 Millionen erreichen könnte

>international research team found that, under the most probable projection, annual mortality rates linked to air pollution and extreme temperatures could reach 30 million by the end of the century. The research, based on advanced numerical simulations, suggests a concerning trend:  pollution-related deaths are expected to increase five-fold, while temperature-related mortality could rise seven-fold, posing a more critical health risk than air pollution for at least 20% of the world’s population.
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>The researchers base their calculations on projections from 2000 to 2090, analyzed in ten-year intervals. “In 2000, around 1.6 million people died each year due to extreme temperatures, both cold and heat. By the end of the century, in the most probable scenario, this figure climbs to 10.8 million, roughly a seven-fold increase. For air pollution, annual deaths in 2000 were about 4.1 million. By the century’s close, this number rises to 19.5 million, a five-fold increase,”

>The study shows significant regional differences in future mortality rates. South and East Asia are expected to face the strongest increases, driven by aging of the population, with air pollution still playing a major role. In contrast, in high-income regions—such as Western Europe, North America, Australasia, and Asia Pacific—deaths related to extreme temperatures are expected to surpass those caused by air pollution. In some countries within these regions, such as the United States, England, France, Japan and New Zealand, this shift is already occurring. The disparity is likely to grow, with extreme temperatures becoming a more significant health risk than air pollution also in countries of Central and Eastern Europe (e.g., Poland and Romania) and parts of South America (e.g., Argentina and Chile)

Paper: [Atmospheric health burden across the century and the accelerating impact of temperature compared to pollution | Nature Communications](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-53649-9)