Eine neue Studie schätzt, dass ein Anstieg des Meeresspiegels um 1 Meter bis zum Jahr 2100 über 14 Millionen Menschen und Eigentum im Wert von 1 Billion US-Dollar entlang der südöstlichen Atlantikküste, von Norfolk, Virginia, bis Miami, Florida, beeinträchtigen würde. Das Ausmaß dieser miteinander verbundenen Gefahren ist viel größer als erwartet
https://news.vt.edu/articles/2024/11/science-nature-climate-driven-risks.html
18 Comments
>The study assesses the cumulative impact of multiple climate-driven coastal hazards, including sea level rise, flooding, beach erosion, sinking land, and rising groundwater, all of which are expected to worsen significantly by the end of the 21st century.
>
>The scale of these interconnected hazards is much greater than anticipated, said study co-author Manoochehr Shirzaei from Virginia Tech’s Department of Geosciences.
>Key findings
>
>Shallow groundwater hazards: By 2100, 70 percent of the coastal population will be exposed to shallow or emerging groundwater, a far more significant exposure than daily flooding. The research projects that this groundwater hazard will affect approximately $1 trillion in property value, creating new challenges for infrastructure such as roads, buildings, septic systems, and utilities.
>
>Storm-driven flooding: Coastal storms and hurricanes will amplify the risk of flooding over land. With 1 meter of sea level rise, overland flooding will affect up to 50 percent of residents in the region, impacting $770 billion in property value.
>
>Beach erosion and loss: The Southeast Atlantic region, known for its barrier islands and coastal ecosystems, could lose up to 80 percent of its sandy beaches with just 1 meter of sea level rise.
>
>Land subsidence: In addition to sea level rise, many areas along the Southeast Atlantic coast are experiencing sinking land, called subsidence, which exacerbates the effects of rising seas.
>
>Socioeconomic exposure: A significant portion of the population and property in the Southeast Atlantic will be exposed to multiple coastal hazards, which will disproportionately affect lower-income communities. As much as half the population in flood-prone areas will be exposed to risks from both groundwater and storm-driven flooding.
Paper: [Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic | Nature Climate Change](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02180-2)
Only 14 million? I’m surprised at so low a number…
IIRC the IPCC forecast of 1-meter sea level rise by 2100 doesn’t take Antarctica into account. There is currently an emergency meeting in Tasmania gathering scientists who study Antarctica. Basically most of the info they are gathering is way beyond any forecast in terms of warming and melting. They scheduled this conference to try to understand what is happening and which mechanisms are triggering this.
Don’t worry, it’ll happen quicker than expected.
This is so fear based it’s ridiculous.
People want to live where it’s nice (which is highly subjective anyway) – not just where the weather is never inclement.
That’s why folks live in the desert, on the ocean, and tons of other places where it doesn’t seem to make sense.
If a place becomes uninhabitable so-be-it! Resilient humans will move on. Complaining doomsdayers will only be heard by others like themselves.
Yeah, but check out that stock market dude …
This is just for a portion of the US East coast and still underestimates the impact that the sea level rise is going to have. They think that they have accounted for the hazards they mention in the article. To quote from a game, “Prepare for unintended consequences”. I assure you that the reality will be far worse and it is starting now. “A 1-meter rise by 2100”; Do people really think that the rising sea will wait until 2099? Yes, I am using hyperbole, but my point is the same. It is too late to mitigate much of what is already coming, but we can keep it from being worse if we act now.
At least we are realistically pushing things to 2100 finally. 10 years ago we were going to be underwater by now with mass extinction and mass forced migration.
Unfortunately the people who need to care about this (bc they can make laws to change things) won’t be alive in 2100, so they don’t care. And the people that will be alive in 2100 are likely in their single digit ages and can’t do anything.
They have 75 years to move then? Oh no.
I mean, if it happens over a weekend it may be a boost to marine life with all fresh meat floating in the ocean.
I was honestly envisaging it being much worse.
About 500 billion outlay for 14m people to switch to new EVs for interest. Of course, that won’t be enough on it’s own.
It’s ok, conservatives in Florida don’t believe in climate change so it will be fine
> 14 million people and $1 trillion worth of property
I’ll give you two guesses which one of these the people in power find more important…
3′ sea level rise would effect way more than 14m people especially when considering drinking water contamination, inland flooding, etc.
I don’t have kids or a private jet, so I’m doing my part.
A trillion in damages doesn’t sound like much money anymore. Because if it were, $36T national debt might be a concern and it’s … apparently not. Nor the trillion or two a year we tack on.
So $1T by 2100 seems like practically a non-issue.
large-scale crop failures by 2050 is the real issue