Die Ukraine vernichtet die russische Kommandozentrale, während der Krieg in eine neue Phase eintritt

Welcome to the [Peanut Gallery](https://www.nuttyspectacle.com/)! Today’s a good day to talk about missiles.

Please remember that I know nothing.

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**[Ukraine:](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-18-2024)**

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>Ukraine conducted a successful combined strike against military assets in the Russian rear on the night of November 19 to 20 using drones and Western-provided long-range weapons. The Guardian and Bloomberg both reported on November 20, citing anonymous sources, that Ukrainian forces have conducted the first strikes against military targets within Russia using UK-provided Storm Shadow missiles.

A couple days back, we were talking about the Le Figaro news article which claimed Biden’s ATACMS authorization was mirrored by the UK and France authorization the same for Storm Shadows. We assumed it was false when a government official disputed (portions) of it, but now Ukraine is hitting targets in Kursk and I don’t know what to believe. It’s possible Ukraine can use Storm Shadows in Kursk only but not wider Russia. We don’t know. The takeaway, though, is that the tabloid got it right.

The Russians are claiming Ukraine used up to 12 Storm Shadows in this strike. I’ve got doubts about that number. Storm Shadow is an expensive, precision guided cruise missile, and the Russians have shown no capacity to shoot them down, so why overkill when a handful will do the job? Or maybe it’s not overkill and the dozen Storm Shadows claim is accurate. The target was huge, after all. [Seriously, look at this thing.](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gc16KT6WMAA-I21.jpg) It’s bigger than the White House.

The mansion is called the Baryatinsky Estate, and Ukraine targeted it because it held a significant command post for the Kursk theater. This was a decapitation strike, so think about what that means. If Ukraine used 12 Storm Shadow missiles, then whoever was there was worth the expenditure of 12 very expensive missiles. It’s likely Ukraine just eliminated a good chunk of Russian and North Korean high brass. We can expect the Russian coordination around Kursk to be very disorganized in the coming days as a result. It’s hard to say when they’ll recover, but I bet this will relieve some pressure on the Ukrainians.

But wait! There’s more!

Ukrainian fired off 44 drones last night against several targets, a few of which struck an arsenal near Kotovo, Novgorod Oblast. This arsenal was storing artillery ammunition, MLRS ammo, S-300 & S-400 missiles, and apparently ballistic missiles. We don’t have any word on secondary detonations, but if we did they would probably sound something like this: Boom! SCREEEE! Rat-tat-tat! Kaboom!

>Ukrainian forces conducted the first ATAMCS strike on Russian territory overnight on November 18 to 19, hitting a Russian ammunition depot in Karachev, Bryansk Oblast – days after obtaining permission to conduct such strikes.

Putin, this is all happening. You can’t change the channel.

Ukraine’s target was an ammunition depot, their second in two days. Here we have confirmation of 12 secondary explosions, which means a good portion of the ammo detonated as a result of the strike. We can probably count this arsenal effectively eliminated.

This is fantastic news because in the report ISW cites a Ukrainian source who claims Russia is beginning to experience artillery shell shortages in select sectors of the front. Now whether this is because of logistics, or if the North Korean artillery shells are finally beginning to run out, they don’t specify, but I can only view it as a positive if Russian shells are going up in smoke. Every shell lost is a shell not fired at the Ukrainians.

There isn’t any real adaptation possible for this development, either. ATACMS & Storm Shadows on Russian soil is a huge development, because Russia won’t be able to hide their logistics across the border anymore. It’s not just Kursk.

>EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell stated on November 18 that the US authorized Ukraine’s use of US-provided weapons up to 300 kilometers inside Russia.

That 300 km bubble will force Russia to distribute their depots the way they do in Ukraine. That means trucks, lots and lots of trucks, and all on Russian roads in the middle of winter. Rail might become difficult to use as loading trains typically involves clustering supplies.

Plus, Ukraine will definitely strike airfields, planes and helicopters, before they even get off the tarmac. This will push the Russian air force another 300 kms away from the Dnipro, meaning much of Kherson Oblast may now be free of Russian aviation.

It’s a huge development…and Putin isn’t happy.

>Russian President Vladimir Putin signed Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine on November 19 in a clear response to the Biden Administration’s decision to greenlight long-range strikes into Russia and as part of Putin’s ongoing efforts to influence Western decision-makers into shying away from providing additional support to Ukraine.

Uh-huh. Rattle away, you little shit.

I don’t have much to say. Maybe we’ll get nuked, or maybe not. Either way, the safest course of action is to support Ukraine.

* If the West abandons Ukraine, then it will show other nations the only defense against nuclear weapons is to get nuclear weapons. When nukes are commonplace, they’ll be used and the taboo broken. From there’s it’s only a short, sharp hop to the apocalypse.

* If the West abandons Ukraine, Putin will keep reaching. Eventually he’ll test NATO and the war that we fled will have found us. Ukrainians are dying to preserve our freedom.

* If the West abandons Ukraine, Xi will feel emboldened to take Taiwan. We’ll find ourselves in a war that could have been avoided had we only been bolder.

Don’t let nuclear weapons scare you. We have no choice but to stand our ground.

>The US and Germany announced additional military assistance for Ukraine on November 20.

Do it, Biden! Do what needs to be done!

Biden used Presidential drawdown authority to send $275 million worth of military aid to Ukraine. He promised to keep this pace going for the rest of the time he was in office. If he sticks to it, Ukraine will be well provisioned going into 2025. Putin would be smart to take note, sit quietly, and wait for Trump, but Putin looks to be putting his chips on the Ukraine peace plan so the increased tempo of attacks will likely continue. That’s fine. Ukraine is more than willing to keep on killing.

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>Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Head off the Department of Combating Crimes Committed in Conditions of Armed Conflict, Yuri Bilousov, reported on November 1 that Russian forces have executed at least 109 Ukrainian POWs since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 and that Russian forces have intensified the number of POW executions they commit in 2024.

[Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.](https://u24.gov.ua/)

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‘Q’ for the Community:

* How will Ukraine’s ability to use ATACMS (and maybe Storm Shadow) missiles against Russia-proper impact the battlefield? How should Russia defend itself?

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* Join the conversation on /r/TheNuttySpectacle!