Donald Wright: Der erste Schritt zur Lösung der kanadischen Immobilienkrise? Implementieren Sie eine nicht wahnhafte Einwanderungspolitik

Points:

Determining how much to reduce immigration depends on:

• Desired pop-to-house ratio.

• Target date to achieve ratio.

• Number of houses Canada can construct over time.

Scenario calculations suggest:

• Re-establishing the 2021 population-to-house ratio by 2031 [this was already bad]

• Building houses in 2024–31 at the same rate as 2016–23.

• The 2016–23 period had the highest 8-year housing completions since 1975–82.

• Uncertainty exists if this construction rate can be sustained due to industry stresses.

• Based on this scenario, Canada needs to limit new PRs and net increase in NPRs to an average of 175,000 per year until 2031.

• This is a significant reduction from the 640,000 per year average over the past 5 years.

• The federal government plans to limit NPRs to 5% of the population.

• Under this plan, a net reduction of 680,000 NPRs by 2031 would occur.

• This allows for an average increase of PRs of 270,000 per year, nearly halving current target of 500,000.

• The average annual increase in PRs before the current government was 255,000 per year.