Der sich anbahnende Krieg mit Israel stärkt Irans junge Hardliner: Regionaler Konflikt begünstigt Extremisten im IRGC

[SS from essay by Saeid Golkar, Senior Adviser to United Against Nuclear Iran and an Associate Professor at the University of Tennessee, Chattanooga. He is the author of [*Captive Society: The Basij Militia and Social Control in Iran*](https://www.amazon.com/Captive-Society-Militia-Social-Control/dp/0231704429)*;* and Kasra Aarabi*,* Director of IRGC Research at United Against Nuclear Iran and a doctoral candidate at the University of Saint Andrews.]

As Iran and Israel inch ever closer to a full-scale war, the Islamic Republic’s huge ballistic missile attack on Tel Aviv on October 1 may come to be seen as a decisive turning point. After successive setbacks for Tehran, including Israel’s assassination of the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was left with little choice but to respond. Now, the region is staring down an even bigger conflict.

Although some kind of Iranian attack was inevitable, given how closely allied [Hezbollah](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/tags/hezbollah) is to the Islamic Republic, Khamenei surprised many observers by taking one of the most extreme options. He could have used his network of proxies to launch an indirect attack against Israel or set off a wave of regional terrorism. Both are steps he has taken in the past. Instead, Khamenei chose to fire hundreds of projectiles at Israel’s second-largest city: one of the largest biggest ballistic missile attacks in history.