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    Türklopfer: In Umfragen fehlen „heimliche Harris-Wähler“, die Trump ablehnen würden


    Türklopfer: In Umfragen fehlen „heimliche Harris-Wähler“, die Trump ablehnen würden

    https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/doorknockers-polls-are-missing-secret-harris-voters-who-will-reject-trump.html

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    29 Comments

    2. solidgoldrocketpants on

      I just moved to NJ a month ago and I gotta say I love NJ.com’s political reporting.

    3. twenafeesh on

      We won’t know for sure until election day (or maybe a few days afterward). Take nothing for granted.

    4. OppositeDifference on

      >Is polling failing to address an enthusiasm gap within Kamala Harris’ or Donald Trump’s campaign?

      I think so. They’re failing to capture it in the exact same way that they failed to capture the Biden/Trump enthusiasm gap in 2020.

      In the lead up to the 2020 election, Biden voters were 7% less likely to say they were very or extremely excited to vote than Trump voters. In the 2020 Election, Biden under-performed polling slightly to moderately across the board.

      This year, it’s reversed. Harris voters are 7% more likely to say they’re excited than Trump voters.

      The logical inference from that information is that we could reasonably expect Harris to over-perform polling across the board slightly to moderately.

      This also makes it more likely than it otherwise would have been that the “adjustments” pollsters made in response to 2020 results will end up being in the wrong direction. They set all of their methodology based on a Biden/Trump rematch, and it doesn’t look like most of them have made any significant adjustments since Harris joined the race.

      And then you have to consider the rest of the content of this article. I really do think that there’s a hidden woman vote from the partners of Republican voting men. They might say they’re voting for Trump to keep the peace, but there’s nothing stopping them from voting for Harris when they can. I personally suspect this effect might be why we’ve been seeing republicans in general under-performing their polling in every special election in the past few years.

    5. MWF123 on

      This is what Ive been suspecting. In 2020, Trump was underestimated in part because he had an in-person GOTV operation and Joe Biden didnt. Now the reverse is true, and Trumps GOTV is reported to be pretty anemic in comparison to Harris’.

    6. WaitUntilTheHighway on

      Is this the fed-up-wives-of-shitbag-MAGA-dudes phenomenon?

    7. Big-D-TX on

      Not really a secret about 1/2 of my republican friends are voting Harris

    8. Zeddo52SD on

      Been feeling this for a minute now. Trump had a lot of supporters that never got polled, but I’ve been feeling confident that he lost them over Jan 6 and everything Trump’s done since then. At worst, they break even between Trump and Harris and the polls are correct. At at most it’s anywhere from a 60-40 to 70-30 break for Harris on unpolled voters. Kamala has the silent majority now, not Trump.

    9. old_and_boring_guy on

      Possible, but we won’t know until the day after.

      Vote like there are only secret Trump voters.

    10. espresso_martini__ on

      I wouldn’t be surprised if these secret voters are women in unfortunate relationships with republican men who demand they vote for Trump.

    11. zimzyma on

      I saw a recent poll that had 18-29 year olds as 30% of “likely voter” responses, 65yr+ were about 15% of the responses. The model adjustment actually flipped the weighting of the 2 groups based on past trends to come to the 51/49 Kamala top line advantage.

      At ~60/40 split for Kamala for the young and ~40/60 for the old… this model adjustment knocks 3% off Kamala’s top line. The headline number should be closer to 54/46 Kamala.

      Is this a bad attempt at smoothing the data, or adjusting to a change in voting habits? Maybe. A tighter race means more fundraising, more paid ads on media sites, and more money spent on polling.

      The money in the politics “industry” is killing our democracy, and if you think Trump is the guy to fight this… sorry, you’re sucker and a loser.

    12. dominustui56 on

      Vote, take nothing for granted, etc.

      My main source of optimism is that the media wants to make the race look close. It attracts views/clicks. I think back to 2012 when less political junkies I talked to thought it was going to be a close race between Romney and Obama but Obama won easily.

    14. BioDriver on

      This gives big 2016 vibes.

      Every poll showed Clinton would win a tightly contested race. But on the ground in swing states there were exponentially more Trump-Pence signs than there were Clinton-Kaine. Now the reverse is true; areas that were usually plastered in TRUMP and MAGA paraphernalia are dwindled down considerably if not outright replaced by Harris-Walz signs. I’ve seen this throughout Texas and in parts of Virginia, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, and Colorado that I visit frequently for work. Indiana was shocking – all those pro-life billboards but Harris yard signs and flyers all over the place in areas that a year prior were TRUMP 2024 banners.

      Harris doing a media blitz four weeks out of the election was the right call. People are getting tired of Trump and the stark difference she brings is refreshing.

    15. notevenkiddin on

      For what little it’s worth, I just drove a 200 mile loop through the reddest part of Louisiana (central) and made it a point to count Trump flags. I only saw five.

    16. Spectre777777 on

      I can agree with this. I come from a family of Trump supporters and I will never admit I’m voting for Harris.

    17. LennyAteYourPizza on

      The “silent” majority that supposedly stood with Trump in 2016 was really just people sitting that election out because they didn’t like Hillary enough and didn’t think Trump stood a chance of winning anyways.

      But now the silent majority is everyone sick and tired of the lying crybaby man, but too afraid of their MAGA neighbors and spouses to vocally/visibly support Kamala. 🙏 VOTE!!

    18. Wynaeri on

      I’ll say I’m seeing Kamala signs in my VERY red, VERY small town in Michigan. I’ve lived there for 20 years or so, and never saw Kerry, Obama, Clinton, or Biden signs.

      My wife and I will be voting for Kamala, but we don’t put signs out or anything just because we honestly don’t trust our neighbors not to target us maliciously. And isn’t that sad?

    19. atxDan75 on

      Been saying this for a long time. There WILL be voters who play the trump game to save face with family and neighbors etc., but have a moral compass set to the right direction and will pull that D lever on 11/5. Mark it.

    20. Most-Artichoke6184 on

      Democratic candidates have outperformed the polling in almost every election since 2016. Just yesterday, a democrat won a mayoral race in Alaska in a city that Trump won by 15 points in 2020.

    21. Caerris1 on

      Another thing I think people aren’t calculating. Just because someone is a registered Republican doesn’t mean they’re voting for Trump. Liz Cheney would come up in a poll as a Republican.

      I know people in my personal life who are Republicans and they’re voting for Kamala because Trump needs to go.

      Kamala Harris is working really hard to win Republicans over. There are also the independents who are sick of Trump. I think all of the conspiracies around the hurricane is going to be just another reminder of the kind of chaos agent Trump is while Biden and Kamala look professional and are immediately acting.

    22. niltermini on

      Lets not count on one anecdote about a lady in New York
      , it’s going to take millions and millions to win decisively – we absolutely have to vote no matter what it takes to do so.

    23. Brains_Are_Weird on

      Everybody please consider volunteering with the Harris campaign. I did my first phone banking session yesterday and it’s quite easy and only takes two hours and can be done from home. I figure it’s better to release my nervous energy somehow. Just Google “phone bank for Harris,” sign up for a time slot, and you’ll be linked to a Zoom call that begins at that time, in which you’ll be oriented and trained.

    24. Raa03842 on

      Interesting. I have a relative who’s husband is a batshit crazy maga moron. He’s telling his wife the she MUST take a photo of her ballot after she checks off Trump in the booth so he can be sure that she voted in accordance with his wishes!!!

      Technically it’s illegal voter intimidation.

      So I simply told her to take a photo where the check mark for the candidate is cropped out and explain to him that “I had trouble holding the ballot, camera and purse at the same time.” And then be pissed at him and put him on the defensive.

      I’m beginning to suspect that there are a lot of women in this situation.

      So to all of you that have to survive in a maga household go with the flow and stay safe. But when you’re in that voting booth vote your conscience.

      Stay safe. We’re in your side.

    25. mokti on

      I don’t care. Im still scared.

      Educate. Canvas. Vote.

      Argue with your family. Don’t fall back on “no politics” at the table.

      Educate. Canvas. Vote.

      Do not let hand our country back to this egomaniac. Vote blue all down ticket. Turn the house and senate blue. Turn Governor offices blue. Turn state legislatures blue. Turn judgeships blue.

      Educate. Canvas. VOTE.

      VOTE.

    26. NathanielJamesAdams on

      In 2008, knocking for Obama, we specifically targeted split households for a while. A large portion of those split households had no idea they were split. So I had angry dudes wanting to know why I was asking for their wives, while their wife mimed signs of support and to keep quiet about it behind their back.

      I got a lot of winks from the ladies at a parade I walked as a D this summer.

    27. aI3jandro on

      Donald Trump’s involvement in the fake electors scheme and efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results constitute several high crimes against our country, including:

      1. Treason (18 U.S.C. § 2381): Attempting to overthrow the government or impede its lawful functions.

      2. Sedition (18 U.S.C. § 2384): Inciting or engaging in rebellion against the United States.

      3. Conspiracy Against Rights (18 U.S.C. § 241): Conspiring to deprive individuals of their constitutional rights.

      4. Obstruction of an Official Proceeding (18 U.S.C. § 1512(c)): Interfering with the certification of electoral votes.

      5. Conspiracy to Defraud the United States (18 U.S.C. § 371): Engaging in deceitful schemes to undermine the electoral process.

      6. Subornation of Perjury (18 U.S.C. § 1622): Encouraging false testimony or statements.

      7. Attempted Election Fraud (52 U.S.C. § 20511): Interfering with the federal election process.

      8. Violation of the Electoral Count Act (3 U.S.C. §§ 1-18): Attempting to alter the electoral vote count.

      These allegations are based on Trump’s actions and statements, including:

      – Pressuring Vice President Mike Pence to obstruct the certification of electoral votes
      – Promoting false claims of election fraud
      – Supporting the fake electors scheme
      – Inciting the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot

      Investigations and potential indictments are ongoing. Trump has maintained his innocence, but the evidence gathered by various committees and investigators suggests serious wrongdoing.

      Sources:

      – Department of Justice
      – House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack
      – Various court filings and testimonies

    28. dirtynj on

      My street has about 5 houses with Trump signs.

      No one else has any political signs.

      The Trump voters feel like they have to let everyone know they are a Trumper. Everyone else will quietly vote Harris.

    29. Just_Another_Scott on

      Tbf here they are also missing secret voters that will vote for Trump. It’s exactly what happened in 2016. People were saying one thing then doing another.

      Go vote and don’t chance it.

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