Eine Eindämmungsstrategie für Venezuela: Um einen demokratischen Übergang zu beschleunigen, üben Sie langfristigen Druck auf das Maduro-Regime aus

[SS from essay by Christopher Sabatini, Senior Research Fellow for Latin America at Chatham House and Senior Fellow of Practice at the London School of Economics.; and Ryan C. Berg, Director of the Americas Program and Head of the Future of Venezuela Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.]

A little more than two months after Venezuela’s presidential election, the regime of Nicolás Maduro has yet to release any evidence to support its claim to victory. Instead, Caracas has brutally repressed its political opponents and civil society. None of this comes as a surprise. What is surprising is the utter failure of international diplomacy to compel Maduro to negotiate with the opposition, despite credible evidence that he lost by a landslide.

Nine Latin American countries, Canada, the European Union, and the United States have denounced the regime’s electoral fraud and subsequent crackdown, but they have been powerless to compel Maduro to enter talks with the opposition, let alone to accept a peaceful transfer of power. Both the United Nations and the United States have ceded leadership over the crisis to Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico—countries whose leftist heads of state are thought to have more ideological leverage with Venezuela’s self-proclaimed socialist government. But even Brazil, a rising power that prides itself on its diplomatic prowess, has struggled to bring Maduro and his cronies to the negotiating table. Maduro has declined to take calls from Brasilia and has met demands for official vote tallies with mocking silence.