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    [OC] Wie sich die Verteilung der Wahlstimmen im vergangenen Monat laut landesweiten Umfragen entwickelt hat


    [OC] Wie sich die Verteilung der Wahlstimmen im vergangenen Monat laut landesweiten Umfragen entwickelt hat



    Von Mz_74

    View 30 Comments

    30 Comments

    2. diabolis_avocado on

      I’m sure this is interesting data, but the GIF with fading transitions moving that quickly is rather useless.

    3. DoeCommaJohn on

      It should be noted that this is the RCP projection, and the 538 projection and Nate Silver’s independent projection have both stayed around 50/50

    4. Mr-Blah on

      Showing time in animated form is lazy and unclear. That’s just a bad graph.

      A simple two time state, before and after, would suffice to get the point across.

    6. Jpbbeck99 on

      We can’t trust the polls cause Trump has a lot of people who will vote for him that are too afraid to admit it, just like when he went against Hillary

    7. DysphoriaGML on

      Beautiful my ass, it’s impossible to tell when it starts and when it finishes and look at the difference in distributions at the same time

    8. superstevo78 on

      it is insane how close it is it is beyond comprehension that you would think Trump should be president. I wouldn’t trust him running a Burger King.

    10. Freeman421 on

      I remember CNN using polls and saying Clinton was going to win a landslide…

    11. Cordistan on

      I kinda get what this chart is saying but I’m not sure about two parts: the purple line and what is the median in this case – or why is the median needed?

    12. TricksterWolf on

      This is neat, but the data you’re using probably inflates Harris’s odds a little. During this period I think both 538 and Silver have had her around 60%. Should nothing change, regression will increase her chances as we get closer to Election Day, though.

    13. Reasonable_Stay_3839 on

      “Statewide polls” – Which state? This seems like important information to just leave out.

    17. srphotos on

      That doesn’t really fit with RCP’s website, which, right at this moment, gives Trump 281 EVs. So… uh, how did you find your way to the reverse in Harris’ favour as a median? What was your methodology, and how does it differ from RCP’s to arrive at opposite “conclusions”?

    18. Hyperion1144 on

      Hillary was ahead at this point too.

      The only poll that matters is on election day.

    20. prima_facie2021 on

      This is one of the more beautiful depictions of data I have seen on this sub in 2 years of lurking. Fantastic job, OP!

    21. Wizzle_Pizzle_420 on

      This is one of the coolest graph setups I’ve seen on here in a while. Nice work!

    23. direwolf106 on

      Donald Trump has historically out performed the polls. So what I’m curious about is do these predictions have those same old projections techniques used? Or did they correct their data collection techniques to be more accurate?

    24. Extreme-Carrot6893 on

      It would be beautiful if the red had zero chance. How do people support a rapist that tried to overthrow the America.

    25. TheCFDFEAGuy on

      I either don’t understand how national polling works, or I don’t understand why pollsters don’t weigh state polls by EC votes when reporting national polls. Per the New York Times, the gap between VP Harris and Pres. Trump is, on average, 3% in Harris’ favor. But I don’t get what that means in terms of answering the question “if the election were to happen today who would you vote for”.
      This is a *faaaaar* better representation of the trends.

      I understand everyone’s gripes that the data is too fast, but I like it this way. I don’t necessarily want to see individual numbers, I want to see what the trend qualitatively is.

      I don’t get to vote in this election.

    27. ApathyofUSA on

      Do it with an aggregate of polls.

      Cause currently every battleground state is trending 1-2% Trump. Which is a very different result than this gif

    28. questioning_ocarina on

      I’m sure the comments will be very civil and open-minded

    29. Consistent-Soil-1818 on

      If you compare the first and last frame you will see that there is the slightest of shifts towards Harris, easily within the margin of error. Maybe you want to plot the average over time in a static chart instead to highlight trends.

    30. Night2015 on

      These polls do not mean anything trump lost in 2016 and yet was still crowned president by the “electoral college”.

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