[OC] Geschätzte Wahlbeteiligungswahrscheinlichkeit nach Landkreisen für die bevorstehende Wahl (Datagotchi 2024 US-Wahlen, n = 6.228) unter Verwendung von mehrstufiger Regression und Poststratifizierung
[OC] Geschätzte Wahlbeteiligungswahrscheinlichkeit nach Landkreisen für die bevorstehende Wahl (Datagotchi 2024 US-Wahlen, n = 6.228) unter Verwendung von mehrstufiger Regression und Poststratifizierung
As a Connecticut resident, I’m curious as to why CT is such an outlier in the Northeast region. Is this a data issue, or is CT voter turnout an actual outlier?
Eldwinn on
From texas. I am in mid 30s, never voted. I registered first time ever because of cruz, abbott and trump. I have had enough.
FlurpNurdle on
Curious for Texas: Why, in a election where the GOP keeps hammering about “the open border” and how terrible it is and in a super red state (rural areas) is the literal texas-mexico border “super less likely to vote” than almost everywhere else?
gojohnnygojohnny on
All these Western counties are expected to beat Minnesota counties?
How?
Minnesota only is rivaled my D.C., typically. Why the change in 2024?
Blutrumpeter on
What is turnout probability? Is it supposed to measure how many people will vote compared to registered voters, citizens, eligible voters, residents, or what?
Competitive_Pop_3286 on
Which variables make Texas such a steaming failure of a state?
CaseyJones7 on
Estimated turnout probability? Probability of what? 90% chance of 90% turnout?
I find it hard to believe that turnout is expected to be at 90% in some places. The US had an average of 66.7% turnout in 2020. Minnesota being the highest at 80%. Even if we assume that turnout will be higher in 24′ (although I doubt that), this chart is expecting about an 80-85% turnout across most of the country. I do not think this is accurate at all.
10 Comments
Our own survey data collected through [usa.datagotchi.com](http://usa.datagotchi.com)
n = 6228
Tool used: ggplot2
We’re looking at you Texas.
zoom in pls
As a Connecticut resident, I’m curious as to why CT is such an outlier in the Northeast region. Is this a data issue, or is CT voter turnout an actual outlier?
From texas. I am in mid 30s, never voted. I registered first time ever because of cruz, abbott and trump. I have had enough.
Curious for Texas: Why, in a election where the GOP keeps hammering about “the open border” and how terrible it is and in a super red state (rural areas) is the literal texas-mexico border “super less likely to vote” than almost everywhere else?
All these Western counties are expected to beat Minnesota counties?
How?
Minnesota only is rivaled my D.C., typically. Why the change in 2024?
What is turnout probability? Is it supposed to measure how many people will vote compared to registered voters, citizens, eligible voters, residents, or what?
Which variables make Texas such a steaming failure of a state?
Estimated turnout probability? Probability of what? 90% chance of 90% turnout?
I find it hard to believe that turnout is expected to be at 90% in some places. The US had an average of 66.7% turnout in 2020. Minnesota being the highest at 80%. Even if we assume that turnout will be higher in 24′ (although I doubt that), this chart is expecting about an 80-85% turnout across most of the country. I do not think this is accurate at all.
Please, prove me wrong though.