Wie sich ein israelisch-iranischer Krieg auf die Ölpreise auswirken wird – und Harris‘ Angebot für das Weiße Haus

After 180 missiles were fired by Iran into the night sky over Israel on Tuesday, fears are mounting that oil prices will rocket too.

In turn comes the risk of higher petrol prices, higher inflation and an existential threat to Kamala Harris’s election campaign.

The [Iranian missile strikes](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/01/us-promises-severe-consequences-after-iran-attacks-israel/), in response to Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, were smaller than the barrage of 300 rockets Iran fired at Israel in April. But the latest attack was more dangerous, launched with less warning and travelled much further into Israeli territory.

[Oil prices have since surged by 5pc](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/01/ftse-100-markets-latest-news-uk-confidence-budget-pmi/) in two days to $76 per barrel, marking a turning point in what had been a steady decline since April.

A major escalation could easily take the oil price to $100, says Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB. 

US website Axios reported on Wednesday that Israeli officials were considering a “significant retaliation” within days that could include [targeting Iranian oil refineries](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/02/israel-options-retaliatory-strikes-iran-weapons-leaders-oil/).  

If prices keep rising, it will create a headache for the Democrats in next month’s [US election](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/01/us-election-2024-poll-tracker-trump-harris/), which is already on a knife edge between Ms Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump. 

“Voters will see high oil prices and high gasoline prices reflecting that the Biden-Harris administration is not able to control the situation in the Middle East, it will make them look weak,” says Mr Schieldrop.

High oil prices will hit US consumers faster and much harder than those in the UK. In Britain, high levels of taxation mean oil prices make up only around 30pc of the cost to drivers at the pump. In the US, where taxes are much lower, oil prices make up the bulk of fuel costs.

“In the US, a 10pc jump in oil prices is a 10pc jump in gasoline prices. It is much more visible, much more hurtful,” says Mr Schieldrop.

“Also, more Americans live from hand to mouth, on the margin. If they suddenly have an additional outlay for gasoline, they are extremely hurt. And you cannot take the bus there, you have to use your car. It will be negative for Harris.”

Republicans will seize on any rise in oil prices as proof that the Democrats cannot be trusted on the economy or foreign policy, adds Mr Schieldrop.

**Read more from The Telegraph:** [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/02/israel-iran-war-oil-prices-kamala-harris-us-election/](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/10/02/israel-iran-war-oil-prices-kamala-harris-us-election/)

I think Trump will have a hard time making claims that none of it would have happened if he was president, which seems to be his go-to when asked how he would handle complex situations. Iran did launch missiles at an American base while he was in office though. His response at the time was just to minimize the soldiers’ injuries as just ‘headaches.’