Eine falsche „Oktoberüberraschung“ – Wie Fehlinformationen die Wahl auf den Kopf stellen könnten

It was also 100 years before William Casey coined the term “October Surprise” that a disinformation campaign almost impacted the presidential election results.

The New York Truth newspaper published a forged letter on October 20, 1880, allegedly written by Republican candidate James Garfield voicing support for Chinese immigration at a time when many white Americans were opposed to Chinese immigration over fears that they were stealing jobs from American workers. In truth, both campaigns were in favor of immigration restrictions. Garfield went on to win the election by a narrow margin, but there has been speculation if the forged letter was released a little earlier the situation could have been different.

Misinformation/disinformation has clearly existed for a while, but social media could impact how it reaches the masses.

“The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report highlights that the primary risk for 2024 is the use of misinformation and disinformation by malicious actors to disrupt society and further polarize communities,” warned

Craig Barkacs, professor of business law and ethics in the MBA programs at the Knauss School of Business at the University of San Diego.

Micro Surprises Could Take Shape

The October surprise may no longer be a single event or revelation. We could already see many at work, with misinformation already circulating about Senator JD Vance and his couch, and Governor Tim Walz supporting post-birth abortions.

But users of social media should be on guard for even more misinformation and disinformation in the coming weeks.

“There may be several October surprises in the works,” said Barkacs. “For most individuals, these may not make a significant difference as their opinions are already formed. For a small percentage, however, these surprises could be pivotal. The presidential elections of 2016 and 2020 illustrate how a tiny fraction of votes in crucial swing states can determine the outcome.”

Artificial intelligence may offer the ability to micro-target voters on social media while being strategically timed and aimed at a particular audience to help alter the results of the election.

“These micro-targeted voters are likely to be low-information voters, who are more susceptible to misinformation. These individuals, often unaware of the broader context, are the first to believe and spread unfounded stories,” Barkacs continued. “Research indicates that micro-targeting specific groups can influence voting behavior. We should be concerned about just what impact a deviously concocted October surprise could have on the outcome of the election.”

What a hot take

Nothing is going to change anyone’s mind about this election. Also, October surprises lost their impact with early/mail voting.