> In the 31 months of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, both sides have seen their fortunes rise and fall.
>
> In the early months of 2022, the Russians barreled toward Kyiv only to outpace their supply lines and get chased back to the south and east. The Ukrainians successfully counterattacked in the east that fall. But a second Ukrainian counterattack in the south in the summer of 2023 got bogged down in dense Russian minefields.
>
> A few months later, the Russians launched a fresh offensive—and made steady albeit costly progress. The Ukrainians countered last month with a surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
>
> Through it all, there’s been at least one geographic constant. Regardless of who was winning at the moment, Vuhledar held. A mining town with a pre-war population of 14,000 in eastern Ukraine’s Donestk Oblast, Vuhledar quickly became a fortress for the resident Ukrainian army formation, the 72nd Mechanized Brigade.
>
> But now that fortress is on the verge of falling. On Wednesday morning, Russian forces bombarded and assaulted the town. And unlike many previous assaults, this one appears to be succeeding. “It’s clear that the situation in Vuhledar is critical, and we are likely witnessing the final stages of its defense,” warned an analyst with Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight.
>
> “I can only hope that the right orders have been given, prioritizing the lives of soldiers over any desire to hold the ground,” the analyst added.
>
> There are signs that’s the case. It seems that, as Russian forces threatened the town’s flanks last week, the 2,000-person 72nd Mechanized Brigade—armed with T-64 tanks, BMP-2 fighting vehicles and M-109 howitzers—began quietly withdrawing to more defensible positions. “I am under the impression that Ukraine withdrew their forces gradually over time to surrender the area to Russia,” noted Andrew Perpetua, an open source intelligence analyst.
>
> How much Vuhledar is worth to either side is a matter of debate. It anchors the corner where the southern front meets the eastern front, but it’s possible Bohoyavlenka, a few miles to the north, could perform the same function. Time will surely tell, as Bohoyavlenka is the likely backup base as the 72nd Mechanized Brigade initiates—or completes—its retreat.
>
> “Russia’s potential seizure of Vuhledar is unlikely to fundamentally alter the course of offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast,” the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. concluded. But it’s worth asking why Vuhledar finally fell after holding out for so long.
>
> The answer is obvious. While Russian forces are overextended all along the 700-mile front line of the wider war, outnumbered Ukrainian forces are even more overextended. Ukrainian defenses in the east were buckling before the general staff in Kyiv ordered parts of eight or so brigades to attack across the border into Kursk Oblast last month.
>
> Now they’re buckling faster.
Apprehensive_Sleep_4 on
Hoping Ukraine will continue to held that area.
Beautiful-Health-976 on
shame on our politicians
a_dolf_in on
Vuhledar was nicknamed “Fortress Vuhledar” by both russia and ukraine as it held out several heavy attacks. Probably the most fortified locality along the frontline, it has a number of high-rise commie blocks from reinforced concrete that can take a lot of punishment, while ssurrounded by a vast flat area so any attack can be countered from quite a distance. There is no cover.
The russian army recently launched a two pronged pincer around the place by sending many smaller units to attack along a wide front. Wherever they met no resistance, they kept advancing, which forced the ukranian army to retreat constantly to avoid encirclement. This went on until the only supply road was put under fire control.
It is sometime around this point i assume the 72nd brigade was pulled out from there and replaced by territorial defense brigades (conscripts) just to hold off the russian army as long as possible.
The presence of such holes in the defense lines, most critically at Pavlivka is a symptom of the acute manpower shortages ukraine is suffering. Right now they genuinely don’t have enough troops to hold their entire frontline. They pull back from one place to stop a russian advance, then the russian army attacks just attacks where ukraine pulled these troops away from.
The only possible solution is withdrawing in order to shorten the frontlines, as even if ukraine started mass mobilization right now it would take several months to train and equip the troops.
4 Comments
> In the 31 months of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, both sides have seen their fortunes rise and fall.
>
> In the early months of 2022, the Russians barreled toward Kyiv only to outpace their supply lines and get chased back to the south and east. The Ukrainians successfully counterattacked in the east that fall. But a second Ukrainian counterattack in the south in the summer of 2023 got bogged down in dense Russian minefields.
>
> A few months later, the Russians launched a fresh offensive—and made steady albeit costly progress. The Ukrainians countered last month with a surprise invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
>
> Through it all, there’s been at least one geographic constant. Regardless of who was winning at the moment, Vuhledar held. A mining town with a pre-war population of 14,000 in eastern Ukraine’s Donestk Oblast, Vuhledar quickly became a fortress for the resident Ukrainian army formation, the 72nd Mechanized Brigade.
>
> But now that fortress is on the verge of falling. On Wednesday morning, Russian forces bombarded and assaulted the town. And unlike many previous assaults, this one appears to be succeeding. “It’s clear that the situation in Vuhledar is critical, and we are likely witnessing the final stages of its defense,” warned an analyst with Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight.
>
> “I can only hope that the right orders have been given, prioritizing the lives of soldiers over any desire to hold the ground,” the analyst added.
>
> There are signs that’s the case. It seems that, as Russian forces threatened the town’s flanks last week, the 2,000-person 72nd Mechanized Brigade—armed with T-64 tanks, BMP-2 fighting vehicles and M-109 howitzers—began quietly withdrawing to more defensible positions. “I am under the impression that Ukraine withdrew their forces gradually over time to surrender the area to Russia,” noted Andrew Perpetua, an open source intelligence analyst.
>
> How much Vuhledar is worth to either side is a matter of debate. It anchors the corner where the southern front meets the eastern front, but it’s possible Bohoyavlenka, a few miles to the north, could perform the same function. Time will surely tell, as Bohoyavlenka is the likely backup base as the 72nd Mechanized Brigade initiates—or completes—its retreat.
>
> “Russia’s potential seizure of Vuhledar is unlikely to fundamentally alter the course of offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast,” the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. concluded. But it’s worth asking why Vuhledar finally fell after holding out for so long.
>
> The answer is obvious. While Russian forces are overextended all along the 700-mile front line of the wider war, outnumbered Ukrainian forces are even more overextended. Ukrainian defenses in the east were buckling before the general staff in Kyiv ordered parts of eight or so brigades to attack across the border into Kursk Oblast last month.
>
> Now they’re buckling faster.
Hoping Ukraine will continue to held that area.
shame on our politicians
Vuhledar was nicknamed “Fortress Vuhledar” by both russia and ukraine as it held out several heavy attacks. Probably the most fortified locality along the frontline, it has a number of high-rise commie blocks from reinforced concrete that can take a lot of punishment, while ssurrounded by a vast flat area so any attack can be countered from quite a distance. There is no cover.
The russian army recently launched a two pronged pincer around the place by sending many smaller units to attack along a wide front. Wherever they met no resistance, they kept advancing, which forced the ukranian army to retreat constantly to avoid encirclement. This went on until the only supply road was put under fire control.
It is sometime around this point i assume the 72nd brigade was pulled out from there and replaced by territorial defense brigades (conscripts) just to hold off the russian army as long as possible.
The presence of such holes in the defense lines, most critically at Pavlivka is a symptom of the acute manpower shortages ukraine is suffering. Right now they genuinely don’t have enough troops to hold their entire frontline. They pull back from one place to stop a russian advance, then the russian army attacks just attacks where ukraine pulled these troops away from.
The only possible solution is withdrawing in order to shorten the frontlines, as even if ukraine started mass mobilization right now it would take several months to train and equip the troops.