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    Könnte es im November zu einem Erdrutschsieg von Kamala Harris kommen? Der Datenwissenschaftler, der die letzte Wahl richtig vorhergesagt hat, wettet auf Ja


    Könnte es im November zu einem Erdrutschsieg von Kamala Harris kommen? Der Datenwissenschaftler, der die letzte Wahl richtig vorhergesagt hat, wettet auf Ja

    https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/trump-vs-harris-election-odds-who-will-win/?itm_source=parsely-api

    View 32 Comments

    32 Comments

    1. CrisuKomie on

      Does not matter, vote vote vote vote vote vote. Do not become complacent or become over confident. We don’t need 2016 again.

    2. Extension_Car_8594 on

      Don’t want to hear the speculation. Pedal to the metal.

    3. jayfeather31 on

      I hoping there is. It might be the only way to avoid post-election drama.

    4. armchairmegalomaniac on

      We all need to vote, but there’s a lot more we can do besides vote. With 7 weeks before election day, we can donate, volunteer, register other people and ourselves, talk to neighbors, talk to strangers, comment on social media, join groups writing post cards to other voters in your state, go to rallies, read good news sources so we can help spread good information and cancel out misinformation… Each of us can do what we are capable of and keep at it until the finish line and beyond… this election might not be decided on election day.

    5. OppositeDifference on

      Archive link – https://archive.ph/LVOde

      You can read this to feel good for a minute, but don’t for a second let it make you complacent. The fact is that nobody knows jack diddly shit until votes are counted, and you always do best when you play like you’re 5 points behind.

    6. joe2352 on

      It could be an electoral landslide but the swing states will still be super close.

    8. seezem_callzem on

      Projected win? Make it a landslide. Projected landslide? Make it a blowout. Projected blowout? Make it complete political annihilation. VOTE.

    9. BigBallsMcGirk on

      Uses how bets are placed for the perceived winner as how the popular vote will shakeout in election.

      Gets way more data points, more often as people are betting 24/7 whole polls are usually 4-5 days late with maybe a couple thousand respondents.

      Basically crowd sourcing who people think will win, and the crowd is usually good at that sort of thing.

      His model outperformed in 2020 for presidential election, and the 2 runoff senate races. Currently has Harris 55% betting favorite/projected pop vote win and winning basically all swing states for a 400 EC blowout.

      Hope so.

    10. Skorpyos on

      Landslide is not enough. MAGA needs to be squashed into oblivion once and for all.

    11. Chemical_Turnover_29 on

      A landslide victory is the only way to put MAGA to bed once and for all. Anything close, and they claim it was stolen.

    12. FartyJizzums on

      I typically like positive news, but a lot of left-wing people get pretty cynical about voting (and sometimes, rightly so). So I’d like to say: There is no landslide if no one votes. Go fookin’ vote no matter what.

      Unless you want a turbo charged boost to idiocracy with a rambling narcissist with an IQ of 40 running the country.

    13. WGPub on

      Anything can happen in the next two months. Hillary had it in the bag and then the FBI decided to kneecap her by publicly announcing an investigation (that found no crimes) 10 days before the election. Obama’s DOJ.

      There are Trump supporters in these federal law enforcement agencies who may be angling for a similar attack.

      Kamala is being so careful about what press she talks to and what she says because one bad soundbite could set her back in this political environment where people get their information from 10 second tik tok videos.

      Many opportunities for failure.

    15. AlekRivard on

      400+ EVs? I don’t buy it. If Harris gets all 7 swing states and doesn’t lose any states from 2020, that’s 319 EVs. Throw in FL, TX, AK, and IA and she still is under 400 (398).

    16. ExtremeThin1334 on

      With how tight the polls are, it could very easily go any number of ways, from Trump losing the popular vote but taking the EC again, to Kamala just barely squeaking past 270, to Harris getting above 300, to the outlier, but still possibility of Texas and/or Florida flipping. Florida in particular might be a surprise because of the large Haitian population there.

      Overall, it’s nice to see that the models are slowly starting to give Harris the overall advantage toward winning, but I sure would like PA to get it’s ass off the fence : /

    17. No_nukes_at_all on

      I dont dare to hope, but i also suspect it will happen. The contrast. Between adequate and horrible has never been as clear.

    19. Corpsehatch on

      Everyone needs to vote blue as if Trump has a 10 point lead in the polls.

    20. Vileness_fats on

      The GOP’s dirty tricks aint nothing yet, friends. They’re not going down without a filthy, bloody struggle to the death, and even after the election there will be hijinks like no one’s ever seen. GET OUT AND VOTE. Pressure your friends and family in battleground states. We cant leave a goddamned thing up to chance. A blue wave isnt enough, this needs to be an whole-ass blue massacre.

      If Trump gets back in, the country is fucked. You, your kids, your parents, your town, all of it. AND EVERYONE ELSE TOO! The global impact is going to be surprising. Dont let this happen. HARRIS WALZ 2024!

    22. WiseChemistry2339 on

      The whole world is counting on us to not let naziism slide back onto the world stage. And at this point that is exactly what this MAGA crap has devolved into. We must step up and stamp this out. VOTE! In greater numbers than we’ve ever voted before. Everyone

    23. D0nCoyote on

      Don’t pay attention to predictions and polls. Hope is great, but complacency will lead to a repeat of the 2016 election. Show up and VOTE blue.

      Make sure you are registered and check your voter registration status often. Encourage your friends and family to do the same.

    24. toejam78 on

      Can someone please put me in a medically induced coma until after the election? I can’t take this stress. If Dump wins, just smother me with a pillow.

    26. Fanabala3 on

      The biggest shocker would be her winning Texas. The night would pretty much be over at that point.

    28. denikar on

      Ignore all this crap and just get out and vote. Drag everyone you know with you.

    29. duckduckduckgoose_69 on

      400 EC victory is not happening.

      That being said- ignore the noise and VOTE.

    30. Final_Tea_629 on

      I should be, Trump is the worst presidential nominee in the history of America. The guy is fucking nuts.

    31. hacksoncode on

      No one believe this propaganda bullshit. Complacency is a big part of what gave us Trump the first time.

      Check your registration now! Vote early (though not often ;-), vote by mail, vote however, but vote, damn you!!!!

    32. bmccorm2 on

      The only landslide in November is the probability of me voting. Do the same!!

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