SS: Ukraine and Russia were set to send delegations to Doha this month to negotiate a landmark agreement halting strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides, diplomats and officials familiar with the discussions said, in what would have amounted to a partial cease-fire and offered a reprieve for both countries.
But the indirect talks, with the Qataris serving as mediators and meeting separately with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, were derailed by Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region last week, according to the officials. The possible agreement and planned summit have not been previously reported.
kenzieone on
If true, and if these talks were in earnest from both sides, this is a really big deal. As far as I know there have been effectively zero significant de-escalations of the conduct of the war since arguably the grain deal.
It also seems, on the balance, like these talks would enormously favor Ukraine. They’re undergoing rolling blackouts in many regions, and some technical reports have come out re their power stations effectively stating that some are past the point of easy or even moderately simple repair; they’d effectively need to be rebuilt, they’ve been hit so many times. Whereas Russia has started to be hit, but I cannot imagine it’s on anywhere near the same scale, and regardless doesn’t have the cumulative effect that Ukrainian power plants have suffered.
Presumably, therefore, the Russian side has other motivations. Perhaps continuing to keep the war away from their populace (power outages are extremely obvious and disruptive to day to day life), perhaps they read between the lines and realized that with UA’s increasing drone strikes (and their range), they too would suffer cumulative damage that also threatens their fossil fuel production, their golden egg.
The_Milkman on
The Kremlin was most likely wishing for a frozen conflict. Good luck with that given its increasing and humiliating loss of control over Kursk.
Titty_Slicer_5000 on
No doubt dovish Biden is pushing yet another ceasefire. Despicable.
Wyvz on
Maybe on the short term, on the broader picture, this incursion help both Putin and Zalensky, and might help end the war quicker. Both countries are looking for ways to end this war already and without making too much territorial concessions that will upset their respective internal populations.
And Ukraine taking territory from Russia might just make them end up with some sort of territorial swap that just might be enough for both populations to somewhat agree with it and reach a compromise to end the war or a least some sort of ceasefire.
ExitPursuedByBear312 on
Is it me, or are cease fires extremely overrated as vehicles for bringing about a cessation of hostilities?
MrParadise66 on
It is to expected that talking continues in the background for Pows and prisoner exchanges but I do not believe that either side has been in anyway serious about a ceasefire. This is just Russian and it’s sympathisers who are putting this out there because of the Kursk incursion. My sources of information for this are RUSI and ISW.
7 Comments
SS: Ukraine and Russia were set to send delegations to Doha this month to negotiate a landmark agreement halting strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides, diplomats and officials familiar with the discussions said, in what would have amounted to a partial cease-fire and offered a reprieve for both countries.
But the indirect talks, with the Qataris serving as mediators and meeting separately with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, were derailed by Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region last week, according to the officials. The possible agreement and planned summit have not been previously reported.
If true, and if these talks were in earnest from both sides, this is a really big deal. As far as I know there have been effectively zero significant de-escalations of the conduct of the war since arguably the grain deal.
It also seems, on the balance, like these talks would enormously favor Ukraine. They’re undergoing rolling blackouts in many regions, and some technical reports have come out re their power stations effectively stating that some are past the point of easy or even moderately simple repair; they’d effectively need to be rebuilt, they’ve been hit so many times. Whereas Russia has started to be hit, but I cannot imagine it’s on anywhere near the same scale, and regardless doesn’t have the cumulative effect that Ukrainian power plants have suffered.
Presumably, therefore, the Russian side has other motivations. Perhaps continuing to keep the war away from their populace (power outages are extremely obvious and disruptive to day to day life), perhaps they read between the lines and realized that with UA’s increasing drone strikes (and their range), they too would suffer cumulative damage that also threatens their fossil fuel production, their golden egg.
The Kremlin was most likely wishing for a frozen conflict. Good luck with that given its increasing and humiliating loss of control over Kursk.
No doubt dovish Biden is pushing yet another ceasefire. Despicable.
Maybe on the short term, on the broader picture, this incursion help both Putin and Zalensky, and might help end the war quicker. Both countries are looking for ways to end this war already and without making too much territorial concessions that will upset their respective internal populations.
And Ukraine taking territory from Russia might just make them end up with some sort of territorial swap that just might be enough for both populations to somewhat agree with it and reach a compromise to end the war or a least some sort of ceasefire.
Is it me, or are cease fires extremely overrated as vehicles for bringing about a cessation of hostilities?
It is to expected that talking continues in the background for Pows and prisoner exchanges but I do not believe that either side has been in anyway serious about a ceasefire. This is just Russian and it’s sympathisers who are putting this out there because of the Kursk incursion. My sources of information for this are RUSI and ISW.