Der Iran könnte zu dem Schluss kommen, dass es strategisch vorteilhafter ist, einen Angriff hinauszuzögern, um Israels internem Druck Zeit zu geben, die Netanjahu-Regierung weiter zu destabilisieren. Durch das Abwarten könnte der Iran versuchen, die Wirkung seines späteren Angriffs zu maximieren und zu einem Zeitpunkt zuzuschlagen, an dem Israel noch geschwächt ist.
https://www.rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publication/rsis/the-calculus-behind-irans-delayed-response-to-israeli-provocation/
3 Comments
They’re “delaying the attack” because they don’t have the means to attack (successfully) Israel. They already tried once this year, and failed spectacular at cost to their already-weak/limited arsenal.
That is clearly not happening. Iran is losing the narrative’s momentum. Israel will blame that the delayed attack, if it actually takes place, sabotaged the progress made in peace talks. Iran’s not gonna do much with one attack. Israel gets another ticket to carry on what it’s doing.
I think this time, Iran doesn’t want to make a name sake retaliation like the previous one. If they go without preparation for a long term war or full scaled war they will be no more. So they will go with missiles capable of withstanding full blown war. It all depends on Russia and China to give them latest missiles. US will intercept for sure, so they should be prepared to declare a war and hit US interceptors as well.
So I feel it won’t go until Russia gives approval.