Die Ermordung von Ismail Haniyeh sendet eine Botschaft

Graeme Wood: “Until a few hours ago, Hamas would have considered Tehran one of the safest places in the world for its leaders to show up in public, safe not only from boos and hisses but also from attempts on their lives. Israel has killed in Iran before, sometimes in ingenious and dramatic fashion. But its targets tend to be Iranians who have to go outside sooner or later. That Israel can kill even when the target is a prominent official, there on a brief visit—not long enough for Israel to surveil him and track his routines—suggests that the Israelis’ ability to operate in Tehran is very extensive indeed. The life-insurance premiums for senior Iranian and Hezbollah officials just spiked.

“Since last weekend’s strike in the Golan, Israel’s neighbors have feared that it would finally set to work destroying Hezbollah, with the likely side effect of destroying Lebanon along with it. Israel seemed ready to do so. When I visited a couple of months ago, everyone from officials to ordinary people seemed to have reconciled themselves to war with Hezbollah, as preferable to letting Hezbollah dictate the terms of permanent bombardment of northern Israel. Israel’s actions in the past day have convinced some that such a war is under way, and that these are its opening gambits.

“I suspect the opposite is true. The twin assassination attempts on Shukr and Haniyeh should, if anything, be a relief. Israel has drawn blood in pinpoint strikes as an alternative to the wholesale attempted dismemberment of Hezbollah through ground invasion or all-out war. Coordinated assassinations send the message that Hezbollah’s leaders, and the leaders of other groups that depend on Iran’s funding and protection, remain alive only because Israel has not yet decided to kill them. That message would certainly make an impression on me, if I were dependent on Iran’s protection. I would be less inclined to escalate, and more inclined to declare this round of violence concluded. Iran is naturally mortified that it could not protect its vassal even in Tehran, and it will seek revenge. But it has tried to avoid all-out war for years. To start one now would be an extreme gamble, at a time when Israel has just given Iran reason to doubt that fortune favors it.”

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