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24 Comments
[https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/newly-discovered-asteroid-has-slight-chance-of-earth-impact-in-2032/](https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/newly-discovered-asteroid-has-slight-chance-of-earth-impact-in-2032/)
>The discovery marks only the second time that an asteroid’s impact risk has reached greater than a 1% chance.
>[ … ]
>The asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, was first noticed on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS); searches quickly revealed that ATLAS had already imaged it two days earlier. Then, as observations accumulated, astronomers could roughly determine its orbit. That’s when the realization dawned: The object has some chance of striking Earth.
>[ … ]
>Given 2024 YR4’s estimated diameter of 40 to 100 meters — somewhere between the size of a tennis court and a football field — its impact could result in anything from the Chelyabinsk air-blast in 2013 to the ¾-mile-wide Barringer Crater in Arizona. It all depends on this object’s true size and mass, and those remain uncertain enough that the magnitude of a potential impact could vary by more than a factor of 10, Bamberger says.
>[ … ]
>It’s also possible that an impact is more likely than JPL’s initial estimate. Sam Deen, a California-based amateur astronomer, says that he searched through observations from the Subaru telescope in Hawai‘i taken in 2016, looking at the position the asteroid would have had if it were on possible non-impacting trajectories. He found no trace of the asteroid in areas covering roughly 80% of all such trajectories. That finding, in turn, raises the odds for a collision, which he estimates at between 3% and 6%.
>“I invite people to double check me,” he says, “because it’s been just me looking at this. I could have missed something.” If his calculations are correct, it means the asteroid will pass at least within 120,000 km (80,000 miles) of Earth in 2032.
We have to wait that long to be taken out of our misery?
Should I move to Panama or India?
Can it come now?!?
I’ll worry about it in 2032 then
Ah, so there is hope we won’t have to endure *four* Trump terms at least
Please. We need it.
How is the asteroid missing New York City?
nothing of value might be lost
its pretty cool we have so many years to prepare for such kind of event, if a real giant asteroid is detected it would even give time to prepare somewhat
Hell yeah
Sigh, floods, cyclones, tornadoes, earthquakes, now asteroids. The universe is really trying hard to wipe out Bangladesh.
Good thing it’s hitting the shit hole zone
Kids so naughty, Santa going to send the cosmic lump of coal
I’m in the northern hemisphere so no matter where it hits, the border at the equator will stop anything from happening to us anyway. Satire lol.
1.2 is very low, how can we improve our odds?
Do it, just do it.
Good, but can we speed it up a little? Like next week?
Rooting for the asteroid
So you’re saying there’s a chance!
Well is this the rapture they all bang on about?
This is right through my hometown… smh
Where do you get that information?
I’m literally eligible to retire on Dec 27, 2032. Come on! This seems wildly… predictable, honestly. Like, yup, that tracks. *sigh*