Es besteht eine 1,2% ige Chance, dass Asteroid 2024 Jahre lang kurz vor Weihnachten 2032 die Erde entlang dieses roten Gürtels trifft.

Von clamorous_owle

24 Comments

  1. clamorous_owle on

    [https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/newly-discovered-asteroid-has-slight-chance-of-earth-impact-in-2032/](https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/newly-discovered-asteroid-has-slight-chance-of-earth-impact-in-2032/)

    >The discovery marks only the second time that an asteroid’s impact risk has reached greater than a 1% chance.

    >[ … ]

    >The asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, was first noticed on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS); searches quickly revealed that ATLAS had already imaged it two days earlier. Then, as observations accumulated, astronomers could roughly determine its orbit. That’s when the realization dawned: The object has some chance of striking Earth.

    >[ … ]

    >Given 2024 YR4’s estimated diameter of 40 to 100 meters — somewhere between the size of a tennis court and a football field — its impact could result in anything from the Chelyabinsk air-blast in 2013 to the ¾-mile-wide Barringer Crater in Arizona. It all depends on this object’s true size and mass, and those remain uncertain enough that the magnitude of a potential impact could vary by more than a factor of 10, Bamberger says.

    >[ … ]

    >It’s also possible that an impact is more likely than JPL’s initial estimate. Sam Deen, a California-based amateur astronomer, says that he searched through observations from the Subaru telescope in Hawai‘i taken in 2016, looking at the position the asteroid would have had if it were on possible non-impacting trajectories. He found no trace of the asteroid in areas covering roughly 80% of all such trajectories. That finding, in turn, raises the odds for a collision, which he estimates at between 3% and 6%.

    >“I invite people to double check me,” he says, “because it’s been just me looking at this. I could have missed something.” If his calculations are correct, it means the asteroid will pass at least within 120,000 km (80,000 miles) of Earth in 2032.

  2. Ah, so there is hope we won’t have to endure *four* Trump terms at least

  3. Academic_Barracuda81 on

    its pretty cool we have so many years to prepare for such kind of event, if a real giant asteroid is detected it would even give time to prepare somewhat

  4. Sigh, floods, cyclones, tornadoes, earthquakes, now asteroids. The universe is really trying hard to wipe out Bangladesh.

  5. Substantial-Ant-9183 on

    I’m in the northern hemisphere so no matter where it hits, the border at the equator will stop anything from happening to us anyway. Satire lol.

  6. PinkUnicornTARDIS on

    I’m literally eligible to retire on Dec 27, 2032. Come on! This seems wildly… predictable, honestly. Like, yup, that tracks. *sigh*

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