Abhängigkeit und Entvölkerung? Konfrontation mit den Folgen einer neuen demografischen Realität – Untersuchung der Auswirkungen einer neuen demografischen Realität, die durch sinkende Fruchtbarkeit und steigende Lebenserwartung entsteht.

From the article

* **Falling fertility rates are propelling major economies toward population collapse in this century.** Two-thirds of humanity lives in countries with fertility below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per family. By 2100, populations in some major economies will fall by 20 to 50 percent, based on UN projections.
* **Age structures are inverting—from pyramids to obelisks—as the number of older people grows and the number of younger people shrinks.** The first wave of this demographic shift is hitting advanced economies and China, where the share of people of working age will fall to 59 percent in 2050, from 67 percent today. Later waves will engulf younger regions within one or two generations. Sub-Saharan Africa is the only exception.
* **Consumers and workers will be older and increasingly in the developing world.** Seniors will account for one-quarter of global consumption by 2050, double their share in 1997. Developing countries will provide a growing share of global labor supply and of consumption, making their productivity and prosperity vital for global growth.
* **The current calculus of economies cannot support existing income and retirement norms—something must give.** In first wave countries across advanced economies and China, GDP per capita growth could slow by 0.4 percent annually on average from 2023 to 2050, and up to 0.8 percent in some countries, unless productivity growth increases by two to four times or people work one to five hours more per week. Retirement systems might need to channel as much as 50 percent of labor income to fund a 1.5-time increase in the gap between the aggregate consumption and income of seniors. Later wave countries, take note.
* **In confronting the consequences of demographic change, societies enter uncharted waters.** Absent action, younger people will inherit lower economic growth and shoulder the cost of more retirees, while the traditional flow of wealth between generations erodes. Long-standing work practices and the social contract must change. More fundamentally, countries will need to raise fertility rates to avert depopulation—a societal shift without precedent in modern history.