Wie man den neuen Kalten Krieg gewinnt

Drawing an extended comparison between presidents Reagan and Trump, Niall Ferguson outlines in *Foreign Affairs* how the incoming Trump administration can plan to win the “new Cold War” with the People’s Republic of China. Ferguson argues that the strategy of “peace through strength” should form the foundation of this administration’s approach. In Ferguson’s view, a buildup of technological and military strength would grant the United States an advantageous position ahead of dealmaking with the PRC that would diffuse tensions and reduce, hopefully by a lot, the possibility of a calamitous third world war between the world’s major superpowers.

As Ferguson writes, “A Trump-Xi deal, however, can come only after the United States has reestablished a position of strength. After ratcheting up frictions over trade in 2025 and 2026—which will hurt the Chinese economy more than it hurts the U.S. economy, as in 2018–19—Trump should adopt a more conciliatory stance toward China, just as Reagan dramatically softened his attitude toward the Soviet Union in his second term.”

Ferguson concludes with a historical reminder: “In 1980, many would have scoffed at any prediction that Reagan would end the Cold War—that he really would deliver peace through strength. Today, the argument that Trump might pull off a similar feat will strike many as absurd. But historical wisdom consists partly of remembering how unlikely epochal events seemed, even just a few years before they happened.”