Befürchtungen über den 3. Weltkrieg: Putin droht mit „Kiew wird dafür zahlen“ und warnt vor „westlicher Vergeltung“

Oh no, not *another* red line… 

The “factors leading up” paragraph is running long. It’s all so foolish.

I don’t like the headline because it amplifies Putin’s bluffing. Downvote.

Strong Baghdad Bob energy. 

Let’s be real here. When Putin begins to make serious move with his death spasms, people in power, who like to be alive and have money etc. will make a move on him. And he knows that, because that is the playbook he grew up in.

He knows (hopefully, I guess) that if threaten enough of the wrong people’s lifestyles, which he already has made troublesome and costly, he looses his soft power. If he threatens their lives, they will rally to have his head removed.

So he will keep making threats and draw lines in the sand, color them whatever he likes. But in the end, their worth is limited. Their effect is mute. Their deterrent is at best a joke. He knows this. The only play he has, is to sound soo threatening and powerful, that people will begin to doubt. It’s exactly the Soviet way to do things. The paper tigers. All smoke and mirrors, but no substance. It’s all in the appearances.

At this point, even if he would say flip it and start launching nukes, and let’s say no one stops him before that and people actually will carry out those orders. Then by the performance shown over the last two years, then half won’t even work. Half of what’s there left are just as likely to blow up in their own face, or miss whatever they aims at. Problem is just that even if 75% of all warheads and the performance of the ballistic missile forces fails, the remaining payload will stiff be absolutely horrible. But anyone one on the Russian side, with a functional brain and a sense of self perseverance, will also know that it would be a knockout blow. It will be horrific damage, but only ensure that what there is left, will come for blood. Not a single Russian will be left standing alive. If they coordinate with their allies, then i sincerely doubt anyone besides North Korea would join them in the attack. Because you know, people general like being alive and not living out their lives in deep bunkers. Iran would nope the fuck out, and China may very well join forces against Russia.

End the end. The only real credible threat towards the west in general, is a path which almost certainly will be his death. Chances are that there is a lot of people placed, to ensure that he won’t take them with him. He can try and do all those asymmetrical warfare and sabotage that he wants. But in the end, their effects are limited. Yeah sure, it will course some disruptions, but it won’t critical cripple anyone or anything.

So he will sit in his castle and spew threats and hellfire towards everyone. But in the end, very little will chance.

…hopefully…