Wählermacht nach Bundesstaaten bei den letzten drei US-Präsidentschaftswahlen [OC]

Von alexski55

8 Comments

  1. Using [this Daily Kos article](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/12/19/1612252/-Voter-Power-Index-Just-How-Much-Does-the-Electoral-College-Distort-the-Value-of-Your-Vote), I calculated the Voter Power Index (VPI) for each state for the 2016, 2020, and 2024 Presidential Elections. VPI essentially says how valuable an individual voter’s vote is in each election. The calculation is pretty straightforward:

    [Visualization made here with Datawrapper](https://www.datawrapper.de/_/Hg8S3/)

    [Source 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Results)

    [Source 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)

    [Source 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election)

    **VPI = {# of Electoral Votes} / {Margin of Victory, in total votes}**

    Interesting findings:

    * In 2016, a voter living in Massachusetts (0.41) could have **increased their voting power by 120X (!)** by moving across the border to New Hampshire (49.1). This is probably the most damning evidence I can imagine against the Electoral College.
    * The single highest VPI of all three elections was a Georgia voter in 2020 (56.0).
    * The single lowest VPI of all three elections was a Maine voter in 2020 (0.20). Outside of Maine and Nebraska in 2020, the lowest VPI belonged to a Massachusetts voter in 2020 (0.37).
    * The median voter in terms of VPI lived in South Carolina in 2016, North Dakota in 2020, and New York in 2024.
    * The highest **average VPI** belongs to Georgians (21.2). The highest **median VPI** belongs to Wisconsinites (14.8).
    * The lowest average (0.41) and median (0.42) VPI belongs to Massachusettsans. 

    More on VPI from the article:

    >Silver describes VPI as “the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner”. The ability of a voter to change the outcome of the election is the bottom line when people think about a vote mattering.

    >Essentially, (VPI) says that the value of an additional vote in a given state is equal to the size of the electoral prize divided by how many votes it would take to change the outcome.

    >If you took the votes representing the margin of victory from a blue state with a VPI of 1 and redistributed them in red states with a VPI of 10, you could get 10x the number of electors out of the deal.

  2. microwavedh2o on

    Style/color of the first chart makes it difficult to see the trend over time. Time-dependent line graph would be better.

  3. SheetDangSpit on

    Blue is not the only color available for a chart. It’s good data, but nearly unreadable for me.

  4. Diligent-Chance8044 on

    VPI identifies which states are the most politically moderate as well. It would take something crazy to flip states that do not have a high VPI. It also identifies where parties are potentially weak or could lose votes.

  5. I feel like this is a lot of work to say swing states are the most important in a presidential election.

  6. HoweHaTrick on

    Hard to read unless you have some special eyes that can see the different colors.

    Also, i would not call it “power”. In the last major election americans were powerless to vote a candidate that was qualified for the job. Nobody qualified applied. I’d call it more “influence” than power because power is something american voters frankly don’t have.

  7. When I want a series of colors, or a few in a series that changes in a systematic way I often use this tool.

    [https://gka.github.io/palettes/#/11|s|0030ff,ffffff|ffffe0,ff005e,93003a|1|1](https://gka.github.io/palettes/#/11|s|0030ff,ffffff|ffffe0,ff005e,93003a|1|1)

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