Die Illusion der russischen Sicherheit in Afrika ist zerstört

The overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad dealt a crushing blow to Russia’s aspirations to great-power status.

Due to its military overextension in Ukraine and intelligence failures prior to the rapid-fire offensive [carried out by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/11/syria-rebel-leader-jolani-hts-al-qaeda-islamic-state-isis/) (HTS), Russia was unable to defend its strongest ally in the Middle East.

Though these setbacks mar President Vladimir Putin’s foreign-policy legacy and weaken Russia’s standing in the Middle East, they could also have a profoundly negative impact on its influence in Africa.

Written by Samuel Ramani, the CEO of Pangea Geopolitical Risk and an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.