Der Kohleverbrauch erreicht einen neuen Höchststand – und bleibt laut IEA-Prognostikern jahrelang nahezu rekordverdächtig.

Submission Statement

The one piece of “good” news in the IEA’s forecasts is that they are consistently wrong – but in a good way, by underestimating the speed of renewables growth. Their[ track record of being wrong on this every single year stretches back to the 20th century](https://bsky.app/profile/profraywills.bsky.social/post/3lbnt3hctl223). Still, their underlying point is sound. Displacing coal from the planet’s energy use is still a vast, mammoth effort.

It’s interesting to ask why the IEA always gets it so wrong, and what hope this gives us for the future. Some people think the issue is that the IEA analysts apply old 20th century big-industry era models to energy trends, when in fact renewables adoption behaves more like 21st century technology like the internet, smartphones and computing.

Let’s hope so. The ramp up in global (mostly Chinese) manufacturing that has slashed solar prices, seems to be happening with batteries and grid storage. Numerous grid battery solutions are in development, with things like sodium-ion batteries looking very promising. Still, the fossil fuel industry has deep pockets, extensive networks of influence/corruption, and intends to derail the energy transition.