>Ukrainian strikes against military airfields in Russia and Russian air defense systems in near rear areas may be prompting a decrease in Russian air operations and glide bomb strikes against Ukraine.
We start with some good news today. When Biden lifted the (stupid) restrictions on Ukraine’s usage of ATACMS & Storm Shadow missiles on Russian soil, he inadvertently brought Russia’s entire air force into range. Up until now, America’s arbitrary rule allowed Russia to park aircraft close to the front, and that enabled them to support Russian offensive actions in Ukraine. These typically took the form glide bomb strikes—bombs launched far away which then glide towards their target. Think of them like flying artillery. They aren’t very accurate, but the booms are big, and enough glide bombs will turn a town to rubble.
But now Russian airfields are in range. There’s a 300 km (186.4 mi) bubble from the Ukraine border where the Russians cannot park a plane. If they do, they can expect delivery of a missile. This has pushed Russian jets far, far from the front, and it’s rendered many of the previously easy, fly-in fly-out, attacks in Zaporizhya and Donetsk Oblasts impossible. Much of the war is no longer in range. We saw something similar when Ukraine received ATACMS initially and used them to push Russian jets out of Crimea.
Consequently, glide bomb attack frequency has plummeted. In first 12 days of November, before Ukraine began hurling ATACMS into Russia, the Kremlin performed 1,472 glide bomb strikes. In contrast, in the first 12 days of December the Kremlin performed 431 glide bomb strikes. That is a 71 percent drop. And since glide bombs are pretty much the only thing the Russian air force is good for these days, we can see it as a reflection of their reduced contribution to the war effort.
This is how Ukraine wins. System by system. Capability by capability.
>Russian forces conducted their largest series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine since the start of the war overnight on December 12 to 13, largely targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Another “largest” drone and missile strike. There seems to be a lot of those lately.
Russia certainly has the capacity to build a lot of ordinances. They launched 94 missiles and 193 Shahed drones. Of those, Ukraine shot down 81 missiles and 80 drones; Ukraine knocked down a further 105 drones with electronic warfare.
It’s that 105 drones lost to electronic warfare which piqued my interest. That’s 54 percent. Just two weeks ago it was closer to 45 percent of Shahed drones Russia launched. While the Shahed numbers are growing, their overall efficacy is shrinking as Ukraine’s electronic warfare capabilities come online. If the percentage of Shaheds lost to EW continues growing at this rate, then the Shahed will be rendered ineffective by March.
The target of last night’s strike was Ukrainian energy infrastructure again. Russia’s attacks had an effect. They caused rolling blackouts throughout much of Ukraine and reduced energy output in five of the nine remaining nuclear powerplants, though three later recovered full output.
These attacks are designed to cause maximum misery to the Ukrainian people. It is winter. This is when people need energy the most. It’s a cruel and senseless attack dedicated to maximizing human misery. If Putin’s intelligence could find any other target, any at all, then that’s where he’d be throwing missiles, but he’s blind, and so the Ukrainian people must bear the brunt of a madman’s fury.
>Russia is evacuating elements of its force grouping in Syria while continuing negotiations with select Syrian groups about Russia’s longer-term military presence in the country.
Nobody seems to know what’s going to happen with these bases, least of all Putin. He wants to keep one foot in, clearly, so he’s sailing his ships in and out of Tartus, yet at the same time he’s evacuating everything not nailed down. There’s clearly some sort of deal in place to allow him to stay, but it’s not the sort of deal he has any faith in long term.
A Russian miliblogger says the Syrian government gave Putin 75 days until he needs to pull out completely. I think this miliblogger may be on to something. It’s clear Putin doesn’t have any faith in his base’s long-term sustainability, so either he’s thinking HTS will lose control over the Syrian government, or he’s been given a window of time and is working to turn it into something permanent. It’s hard to say whether it will work. Two-and-a-half months is a long time for a fledgling government. A lot can change.
>Actors affiliated with Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) likely assassinated the Deputy General Designer and Functional Software Department Head of the Russian Rosatom-owned “Mars” design bureau Mikhail Shatsky in Russia on December 12.
Boom! Headshot! You know, we don’t hear about the FSB assassinating people on Ukrainian soil very often. It’s always Russians dying, or Russian ex-patriots dying somewhere in Europe. Never Ukraine. It’s just something I’ve noticed.
This scientist primarily worked on modernizing the Kh-59 cruise missiles and implementing AI into Russian drones. Both fields of focus are areas of fierce competition. His loss will greatly hamper developmental efforts enormously.
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>Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Head off the Department of Combating Crimes Committed in Conditions of Armed Conflict, Yuri Bilousov, reported on November 1 that Russian forces have executed at least 109 Ukrainian POWs since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 and that Russian forces have intensified the number of POW executions they commit in 2024.
[Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.](https://u24.gov.ua/)
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‘Q’ for the Community:
* What other Russian systems and capabilities has Ukraine’s ability to strike inside Russia rendered ineffective?
1 Comment
Welcome to the [Peanut Gallery](https://www.nuttyspectacle.com/)! Today let’s talk about flying stuff.
Please remember that I know nothing.
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**[Today’s Source:](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-13-2024)**
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>Ukrainian strikes against military airfields in Russia and Russian air defense systems in near rear areas may be prompting a decrease in Russian air operations and glide bomb strikes against Ukraine.
We start with some good news today. When Biden lifted the (stupid) restrictions on Ukraine’s usage of ATACMS & Storm Shadow missiles on Russian soil, he inadvertently brought Russia’s entire air force into range. Up until now, America’s arbitrary rule allowed Russia to park aircraft close to the front, and that enabled them to support Russian offensive actions in Ukraine. These typically took the form glide bomb strikes—bombs launched far away which then glide towards their target. Think of them like flying artillery. They aren’t very accurate, but the booms are big, and enough glide bombs will turn a town to rubble.
But now Russian airfields are in range. There’s a 300 km (186.4 mi) bubble from the Ukraine border where the Russians cannot park a plane. If they do, they can expect delivery of a missile. This has pushed Russian jets far, far from the front, and it’s rendered many of the previously easy, fly-in fly-out, attacks in Zaporizhya and Donetsk Oblasts impossible. Much of the war is no longer in range. We saw something similar when Ukraine received ATACMS initially and used them to push Russian jets out of Crimea.
Consequently, glide bomb attack frequency has plummeted. In first 12 days of November, before Ukraine began hurling ATACMS into Russia, the Kremlin performed 1,472 glide bomb strikes. In contrast, in the first 12 days of December the Kremlin performed 431 glide bomb strikes. That is a 71 percent drop. And since glide bombs are pretty much the only thing the Russian air force is good for these days, we can see it as a reflection of their reduced contribution to the war effort.
This is how Ukraine wins. System by system. Capability by capability.
>Russian forces conducted their largest series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine since the start of the war overnight on December 12 to 13, largely targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Another “largest” drone and missile strike. There seems to be a lot of those lately.
Russia certainly has the capacity to build a lot of ordinances. They launched 94 missiles and 193 Shahed drones. Of those, Ukraine shot down 81 missiles and 80 drones; Ukraine knocked down a further 105 drones with electronic warfare.
It’s that 105 drones lost to electronic warfare which piqued my interest. That’s 54 percent. Just two weeks ago it was closer to 45 percent of Shahed drones Russia launched. While the Shahed numbers are growing, their overall efficacy is shrinking as Ukraine’s electronic warfare capabilities come online. If the percentage of Shaheds lost to EW continues growing at this rate, then the Shahed will be rendered ineffective by March.
The target of last night’s strike was Ukrainian energy infrastructure again. Russia’s attacks had an effect. They caused rolling blackouts throughout much of Ukraine and reduced energy output in five of the nine remaining nuclear powerplants, though three later recovered full output.
These attacks are designed to cause maximum misery to the Ukrainian people. It is winter. This is when people need energy the most. It’s a cruel and senseless attack dedicated to maximizing human misery. If Putin’s intelligence could find any other target, any at all, then that’s where he’d be throwing missiles, but he’s blind, and so the Ukrainian people must bear the brunt of a madman’s fury.
>Russia is evacuating elements of its force grouping in Syria while continuing negotiations with select Syrian groups about Russia’s longer-term military presence in the country.
Nobody seems to know what’s going to happen with these bases, least of all Putin. He wants to keep one foot in, clearly, so he’s sailing his ships in and out of Tartus, yet at the same time he’s evacuating everything not nailed down. There’s clearly some sort of deal in place to allow him to stay, but it’s not the sort of deal he has any faith in long term.
A Russian miliblogger says the Syrian government gave Putin 75 days until he needs to pull out completely. I think this miliblogger may be on to something. It’s clear Putin doesn’t have any faith in his base’s long-term sustainability, so either he’s thinking HTS will lose control over the Syrian government, or he’s been given a window of time and is working to turn it into something permanent. It’s hard to say whether it will work. Two-and-a-half months is a long time for a fledgling government. A lot can change.
>Actors affiliated with Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) likely assassinated the Deputy General Designer and Functional Software Department Head of the Russian Rosatom-owned “Mars” design bureau Mikhail Shatsky in Russia on December 12.
Boom! Headshot! You know, we don’t hear about the FSB assassinating people on Ukrainian soil very often. It’s always Russians dying, or Russian ex-patriots dying somewhere in Europe. Never Ukraine. It’s just something I’ve noticed.
This scientist primarily worked on modernizing the Kh-59 cruise missiles and implementing AI into Russian drones. Both fields of focus are areas of fierce competition. His loss will greatly hamper developmental efforts enormously.
——————————————————————————————————
>Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Head off the Department of Combating Crimes Committed in Conditions of Armed Conflict, Yuri Bilousov, reported on November 1 that Russian forces have executed at least 109 Ukrainian POWs since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 and that Russian forces have intensified the number of POW executions they commit in 2024.
[Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.](https://u24.gov.ua/)
——————————————————————————————————
‘Q’ for the Community:
* What other Russian systems and capabilities has Ukraine’s ability to strike inside Russia rendered ineffective?
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* Join the conversation on /r/TheNuttySpectacle!