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Submission Statement: “There is huge uncertainty over what happens next in Syria, but while the losers are clear enough it’s too early to judge the winners.” Tuba Unlu Bilgic discusses Turkish President Erdoğan’s cautious response to the recent developments in Syria, where the fall of the Assad regime has led to significant regional shifts. He faces challenges from the rise of the Islamist HTS group and the presence of millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey. Erdoğan’s aspirations for a favorable outcome in Syria, which includes a government aligned with his party’s ideals, are complicated by the unpredictability of the situation and the potential for internal conflict among opposition factions.