Der westliche Mythos vom „Typen, mit dem wir Geschäfte machen können“ – „Der Westen hatte Recht mit Assad und Putin, bis das nicht stimmte.“ Es ist jetzt richtig, den saudischen Kronprinzen Mohammed bin Salman zu kultivieren.“

FT’s Janan Ganesh:

*[…] First, let us stipulate that this is a world of dire options. Liberal societies have survived by backing lesser against greater evils: Soviets against Nazis, mujahideen against Soviets, Ba’athists against jihadis. But this can’t explain the depth of recent credulity.*

*European governments thought Putin was too sensible to invade Ukraine even as he lined the border with troops three winters ago. Assad was indulged long after he had smothered the tentative reforms of the Damascus Spring in 2001.*

*Part of the naïveté is generational. At a formative stage in their careers, the leaders who fell for Assad had seen Mikhail Gorbachev and then FW de Klerk wind down their own autocracies to face westward, or at least outward. We now recognise this as exceptional, almost freakish statesmanship.*

*A cohort of western decision makers saw it as a transferable template. The idea of a self-euthanising dictatorship, a regime that will give up the fight if you just coax it along, took hold. Forged in disappointment, especially the dashed hopes of the Arab Spring, the coming batch of western politicians, diplomats and spies won’t be so innocent.*

*Another reason the west gets caught out is that autocrats tend to harden over time. As power intoxicates them, courtiers dial up the praise and access to reliable information dries up, executive over-reach becomes ever likelier. A long-serving despot is one with lots of enemies, too, and therefore no alternative to holding office that doesn’t invite death. (Or exile, which brings its own insecurities.)*

*In other words, the west was right about Assad and Putin, until it wasn’t. It is now right to cultivate Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Nothing could be more pragmatic. In 2030, though? […]*

Is this the precursor to another regime change in the near future?