Die Auswirkungen der gescheiterten Proxy-Strategie Irans

At *The Caravan*, Bernard Haykel analyzes what the breakdown of Iran’s proxy forces in the Middle East means for the future of the region amid this “watershed moment.” Haykel suggests that the immense likely costs to the regime of completing a nuclear weapon mean it is more likely that Iran will “prioritize rebuilding its proxy network to maintain regional influence, with a particular focus on strengthening Hezbollah and Hamas.” He also notes that “Khamenei’s ideological rigidity leaves little room for self-correction.” In Haykel’s view, this problem would probably persist even if the IRGC were to seize power, as the regime’s “glue holding its leadership together” is the conceptual “framework of solidarity or *asabiyya*” which is “centered on resistance against ‘oppression’ and the defeat of ‘arrogance.'”

Haykel posits, “The question now is not whether the regime, in its weakened state, will collapse but rather how much harm it will inflict—on its own citizens and the region—before its eventual downfall or complete transformation into what Kissinger called a nation.” On the question of US policy, he advises that “the incoming Trump administration should…focus on accelerating this process while minimizing the suffering it causes to the Iranian people and others in the region.”