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    Wie Trump den Frieden in der Ukraine gewinnen kann


    Wie Trump den Frieden in der Ukraine gewinnen kann

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/12/trump-russia-ukraine-talks/680934/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_content=edit-promo

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    5 Comments

    1. theatlantic on

      Niall Ferguson and Harry Halem: “As President-Elect Donald Trump prepares to seek a negotiated settlement to the worst European war since 1945, he confronts in Russia a counterparty with real bargaining power. Over the three decades since the end of the Cold War, Russia has become a serious international player, with greater military-industrial capacity than Europe and one of the world’s largest land armies, as well as the world’s second-biggest nuclear arsenal. Russia has also been coordinating its Ukrainian war effort with Iran, China, and North Korea, creating in effect a New Eurasian Axis. [https://theatln.tc/zsALBgzH](https://theatln.tc/zsALBgzH) 

      “The peace talks are set to begin at a time when, despite American and European military assistance to Kyiv, Russian forces are advancing westward and Ukrainian resistance is close to its breaking point. 

      “… Although many in the Republican Party question the fact, the United States has a major interest in Ukraine’s survival and a durable settlement. With the biggest population of any Eastern European country aside from Poland, Ukraine has significant mineral resources and is a major agricultural exporter. Though impoverished by war, the country has also developed an impressive defense-tech sector.

      “… There is no reason to expect Russian ambition to halt at Ukraine’s western borders. Trump has expressed skepticism about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but the best way to prevent Moscow from testing the treaty’s Article 5 mutual-defense clause is to preserve an independent Ukraine. Even so, the U.S. negotiating team must learn from history that Russia does not negotiate in good faith, but sees diplomacy as a way to freeze rather than resolve a conflict, to build military leverage, and to split allies.”

      “… The process will be tense and risky. Washington must ensure that Kyiv avoids the trap of a mere cease-fire and reaches a settlement that can endure. In America’s favor is that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s position has been weakened by the sudden collapse of his client Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. That is a weakness Trump must now exploit.

      “… To achieve a meaningful settlement, the U.S. must build leverage in a much broader way, linking Russia’s position in Ukraine to other interests. Four steps make sense: increased pressure in the Middle East, disruption of Russia’s Eurasian partnerships, explicit U.S. acceptance of European-led security initiatives, and exploitation of Russia’s reliance on Chinese economic support.

      “… Combining these four elements with sustained military and economic support for Ukraine will give Washington a chance to keep Russia at the negotiating table. No one entrusted by Trump with negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine should expect overnight success. The challenge will be to overcome Russia’s tried-and-tested method of cynically exploiting negotiations to gain military advantage.”

      Read more: [https://theatln.tc/zsALBgzH](https://theatln.tc/zsALBgzH) 

    2. monocasa on

      > Four steps make sense: increased pressure in the Middle East, disruption of Russia’s Eurasian partnerships, explicit U.S. acceptance of European-led security initiatives, and exploitation of Russia’s reliance on Chinese economic support. 

      Trump is practically going to do only some of those.

      He will increase pressure in the Middle East, by essentially letting Israel do whatever it wants.

      He probably won’t disrupt Russia’s Eurasian partnerships, but instead try to cement them back into the world economy.

      He probably will tacitly endorse European led security initiatives where it helps his anti-NATO message, but when push comes to shove the US arms industry will view that as competition and end up shutting a lot of it down in a practical sense.

      He also probably will continue to economically isolate China, implicitly tightening Russo-Sino economic ties.

      IMO his strategy wrt Ukraine will be a strongman style “what are you gonna do about it?” posture to the Ukrainian government rather than balancing concerns of the parties involved.

    3. Curious_Donut_8497 on

      His heavy handed excuse of a diplomacy will not win the USA any peace deals, what he can do is choke the aid to Ukraine, and if Europe don’t take up on the slack, things will get really bad to Ukraine….

    4. markth_wi on

      I have to imagine there’s some serious negotiations between NATO/US , Ukraine and maybe even the Russians right now – because likely that’s how that shit is going to get solved, by Ukraine becoming a new member of NATO – and Vladimir can get stuffed with whatever territories he might get in concession.

    5. janethefish on

      Ukraine and Russia have negotiated multiple ceasefire and other peace deals. Russia keeps breaking them. Peace can only last if Ukraine has defense agreements in place or sufficient defenses of their own, but those are red lines for Russia.

      Nor does Trump appear to have serious interest in a real peace deal. He thinks it is the sort of thing he can demand in a day. We saw how his deal with the Taliban worked. He released a bunch of fighters and gave the Taliban everything they wanted.

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