TL;DR: Eine detaillierte Analyse der Krypto-Prognosen von Benjamin Cowen für das Jahr 2023 zeigt eine überraschend schlechte Erfolgsbilanz. Von den 17 analysierten Vorhersagen waren 15 falsch, 1 war teilweise richtig und nur 1 war völlig korrekt. Link zum Video ist Hier.
Ich möchte niemandes Zeit verschwenden (+ ADHS hier), also werde ich gleich loslegen.
METHODIK
Ich habe eine Tabelle erstellt (hier erhältlich), wo ich Bens genaue Aussagen und Vorhersagen zu Bitcoin (Preis und Dominanz), Ethereum und Altcoins verfolgt habe. Die Idee dahinter war nicht, dies zu veröffentlichen oder ein Video darüber zu machen – es ging darum, es für meinen eigenen Verstand zu nutzen, weil ich das Gefühl hatte, dass viele seiner Vorhersagen hinter den Erwartungen zurückblieben, aber nie mit dem Finger darauf zeigen konnte, warum. Für eine faire Bewertung habe ich mich auf Vorhersagen für das Jahr 2023 konzentriert, da einige Monate/Jahre brauchen, um sich zu bewahrheiten. Dann habe ich jede Vorhersage methodisch mit der tatsächlichen Marktleistung verglichen und festgestellt, ob sie sich bewahrheitete oder nicht. Ich habe ein Video darüber gemacht, weil es ehrlich gesagt einfacher und schneller zu verfolgen ist, als auf jeden Link in der Tabelle zu klicken. Ich bin kein YouTuber, ich brauche deine Subs nicht und dies ist das einzige Video, das ich jemals veröffentlichen werde. Ich möchte Sie nur informieren.
SCHLUSSFOLGERUNGEN
Von 17 Aussagen, denen ich nachgegangen bin, haben sich 15 letztendlich als nicht bewahrheitet. Eine davon war teilweise richtig, eine andere völlig richtig. Bens Vorhersagen verfehlten die Timing-Komponente, die Wertkomponente oder beides (in den meisten Fällen). Ich werde nicht auf konkrete Aussagen eingehen – Sie haben entweder die Tabelle oder das Video, das Sie sich ansehen können.
WEGBRINGEN
Letztlich geht es hier überhaupt nicht um Ben. Es geht um JEDE YouTube- und X-Krypto-Persönlichkeit, der Sie folgen. Hier ist der entscheidende Rat:
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Dokumentieren Sie GENAUE Aussagen – wenn ein Influencer eine Vorhersage macht, schreiben Sie die GENAUEN Worte auf, einschließlich spezifischer Preisziele, Zeitrahmen und Bedingungen.
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Hüten Sie sich vor Narrativverschiebungen – viele Influencer haben die Angewohnheit, ihre Narrative langsam zu optimieren. Sie werden ihre ursprüngliche Aussage im Laufe der Zeit subtil ändern, damit sie, wenn irgendwann etwas passiert, behaupten können, sie hätten es getan "vorhergesagt" Es.
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Zeit und Wert sind wichtig – bei einer Vorhersage geht es nicht nur darum, am Ende richtig zu liegen. Entscheidend sind der konkrete Zeitrahmen und der genaue Wert. Wenn jemand vorhersagt, dass Bitcoin 100.000 US-Dollar erreichen wird "irgendwann in der Zukunft"das ist keine echte Vorhersage.
Starten Sie eine Tabellenkalkulation. Verfolgen Sie die genauen Ansprüche. Vergleichen Sie sie mit der tatsächlichen Marktleistung. Sie werden überrascht sein, wie oft "Experte" Vorhersagen fallen bei genauer Prüfung auseinander.
Fazit: Recherchieren Sie selbst. Seien Sie kritisch. Verehren Sie keinen einzelnen Krypto-Influencer, egal wie beliebt er ist.
I analyzed Ben Cowen's predictions and made a spreadsheet + video about it
byu/pandazealot inCryptoCurrency
34 Comments
1.5/17 – I think Ben deserves an award for getting the least predictions right!
Edit: I just started watching the video and have to say OP is a talented presenter and this should definitely not be the only video you make!
You really had to *analyze* some saying it might go up or down that he will be wrong most of the time? Bruh
But I guess it makes for next level degenerate reaction content for your tiktok audience.
Going back a bit I saw some of Ben Cowen’s videos and my takeaway was that he has absolutely no great talent, insight or ability to predict future price movements.
He earns his money from a paid-for subscription telegram channel, but why anyone would pay him for this is beyond me!
The most important one about BTC D hitting 60% was accurate regardless of exactly when
I’m not even his fan, I hated every time he made a video on BTCD and how it will go for 60% target
He will block you if he sees you pointing out these facts.
The only thing I care about is his risk metric, and even then it’s not perfect. While I’m sure he means well, nobody can predict the future.
I’m currently watching your video and want to say I appreciate the time and effort you’ve put into this.
I agree with others, this is very well presented.
Thank you for your efforts on this. I am curious about your methodology.
Did you analyze all of his videos in 2023? How many videos of his did you analyze in total?
How many statements did he make in 2023, and why only choose these 17?
How did you choose those 17 statements to follow up on? Were these 17 statements randomly selected or were they cherry picked?
How many statements did you not follow up on?
Anyone investing money from videos they see on Youtube / Tiktok deserve to lose money. Someone has to lose money.
…and he’s one of the better ones.
He was right about buying bitcoin below 25k and being all in in bitcoin all of 2023 and 2024 and switching to alts in mid November. That’s good enough to 5 to 10x your portfolio every 4 years which is more than most people do.
I don’t even like the guy, but his strategy makes sense for someone who is already very rich.
You sir, did gods work.
I don’t have that kind of time. I’m too busy trading and making money to worry about influencers.
Looking at the excel sheet you’re being pretty harsh. His timing may have been off but I’d count those are partially correct
Appreciate this. I went down a rabbit hole of his videos and others. I was DCAing when these guys were prevaricating for months around 20k+. I just got annoyed and went all in. I’m not gonna watch these guys for hours every day when they’re just wishy-washy and aren’t even real Bitcoiners. They make money from subscribers. Fine but I don’t care. It’s really not that hard once you believe in the potential. If you’re stuck trying to predict these markets and in and out of shitcoins, good luck.
Where’s your donations page or address?
Crypto is too volatile with top many people with self interests and that can be video views rather than just crypto gains.
Remember BTC lengthening cycle and 100k eoy 2021 ?
Was wrong when it was most important.
I remember it. Better copy trade a hamster like mr Gox or an octopus idk, at least man can be sure they aren’t paid shills baiting exit liquidity to hold during blow off top
Now this is the quality research we don’t deserve. Thank you, OP
Tbh, I found Benjamin Cowen to be one of the most truthful and nice crypto-influencers. When he predicts, he almost always encourages viewers to do DYOR. He almost never talks about specific price points ans clickbaits it. He is always very adamant in talking about risks and how the market does what the market does. Therefore I found him to be very vague most of the time, discussing various points that could be true, and leaving the viewer to decide what they think, based on his research.
This is bullshit. He’s one of the most reasonable ppl on youtube. Keep on shilling, scammers. Who cares? It’s FREE CONTENT!
Stopped watching him a while ago. He went from perma bull with “extended cycles” to perma bear always waiting for something to “come home”, and then just kept moving the goal posts as to what the bottom is when the price didn’t go as low as he was predicting.
I think you are confusing his “scenarios” with trading calls on a lot of these. There is a big difference between the two. He provides a lot of scenarios and says likely ones to be prepared for and which ones he thinks could happen. He is forecasting a cycle with likely dates, not giving you dates to buy $ibit options.
His main claims that he preached have actually been pretty accurate
1. He said he’s converting ETH to BTC before eth/btc went down significantly.
2. His main thing is BTC dominance to 60%. He said BTC dominance will hit 60% sometime in the future. If you followed these as forecasts and not trading calls, you would have held BTC (done very well and not been in alts) and then converted btc to alts at 60% (also would’ve done very well.)
3. Now he is forecasting that BTC dominance will go down significantly (alt season), which means stick to a few of the bigger alts, and ride the wave up while BTC dominance goes down.
I’m not saying he’s not wrong a lot, but tbh his main stuff is pretty spot on.
P.S. I do think he is a lot more accurate on eth/btc or BTC.D than BTCUSD
I’ve been following InvestAnswers and doing something similar to what you’re doing here. James is far more accurate and precise. But yeah, generally people shill their own investments and it creates a bit of an echo chamber. Always gotta do your own research and not be swayed too much because even the most trustworthy investors can be too bullish with their portfolio.
I watch Cowen’s videos and have followed some of the advice on the channel. Mostly to sell before the larger % drops from the last cycle and buy mostly BTC at the start/low point of this cycle ($15-$30k).
That is to say, I may be biased in his favor. Also, I haven’t fully watched your video yet.
Just looking through spreadsheet and picked one at random to look at for now:
#13 – BTCUSD will bottom on first Fed rate cut
Ben’s actual words in the video:
What you quoted…
>…That on the very first rate cut, that might be the bottom for Bitcoin. And it could be a higher low, it could be a lower low, it could be a double bottom.
What he said directly after your quote…
>**It all depends on how aggressive the Fed wants to be. And anyone that’s going to tell you they know what’s going to happen I can assure you that they don’t, okay, including myself. Right? You need to be open to all three possibilities. I’m just saying you know if we do get a double bottom or a lower low it should not be that surprising. Or if it’s a higher low it should not be that surprising. You have to be open-minded to how the markets change and evolve as we continue to move forward in the business cycle and how the unemployment rate unfolds as we get further into the business cycle as well.**
Do you see the bolded words in the quote. You just ignored that part. You didn’t put it in the video, nor point it out in any way.
So let’s break this down from my POV.
Cowen has said there are 3 options he thinks are likely:
* Lower low on first rate cut
* Double bottom on first rate cut
* Higher low on first rate cut
He also states that he doesn’t really know what is going to happen in the future. It depends on how the business cycle further evolves.
Ok…so what did you say… (in response to what you quoted above):
>Well you’ve heard this right. Bitcoin might bottom on the first rate cut by the Fed. Now we know that the first cut happened in Sept 2024 as marked by this vertical line. And the price back then was not close to the bottom. In fact if we calculate the move from the bottom it was around 300% of the bottom and if we’re a bit more generous and check from the time when Ben published the video it’s more than double that price. So, we need to mark this as another miss for Ben.
Ok. What actually happened to BTC during the first rate cut?
* Was it a lower low on the first rate cut compared to when the video aired
No. It was not
* Did BTC double bottom during the first rate cut?
No. It did not
* Did BTC have a higher low on the first rate cut.
**Yes and no.** BTC had a higher low on the 6th/7th/8th of Sept. Rate cuts were on the 18th of Sept. So, within 14 days of the Fed’s first rate cut BTC had the lowest close it had had since the 26th of February2024.
**Based on his full statements above, I at least would qualify this as meeting the requirements of his statement.** It was a higher low. It was higher then when the video was out, and it was a 6-9 month low compared to previous prices. **How is this not a ‘higher low’?**
Why are you even classifying this as a “prediction”?
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This is the first number I looked at and I feel like I’m already seeing issues with your statements and video.
Are you going to come out and ‘tweak’ your statement in the video just like you accuse Cowen of doing so many times?
Please elaborate.
Predictions are, well, predictions. If you put too much faith in them, it’s your own fault.
I’ve learned a lot from his channel but found out the hard way not to listen to his (or anyone’s) advice. Learn how he analyzes the market, and use it to make your own decisions.
The last cycle he kept preaching about the lengthening cycle theory on his free channel. So I held. Turns out he was telling his paid subscribers to sell. Then months later acted like “I told you so” when he was giving contradicting advice based on how much money you paid
His predictions are often not correct but his methodology (Sticking to BTC until altseason/ 60-70% BTC dominance + buying BTC at certain risk levels or around ~ -70-80%) went good the last few years…
+ Finally a great post that is worth reading. The quality of most posts here is awful…
Another option is to buy and hold then use the extra time to go outside and live life?
I always look for the one with the worst track record and hedge against them.
THANK YOU. Dr. Tshirt doesn’t know jack shit. He got lucky on ada and has been shitting on everything ever since.
I find he’s good to follow if you pair it with what he doesn’t talk about, sentiment in the market
So can we see your predictions?
his only credential is that he picked up lots of cardano at .02 after it capitulated in 2018. He got very lucky but he’s trying his best.
The main mistake Ben has made was thinking we were going much higher in late 2021.
Otherwise the guy has been an absolute boon to my portfolio.
1) Selling alts for fiat and BTC in 2021 meant I had profits and was completely out of alts while they got wrecked over next couple years.
2) Loading up sub 25k when Ben’s risk levels called for buying speaks for itself at this point
3) Holding off on alts until 60% dominance has outperformed most alt portfolios. Who cares if the timing of this prediction was off? Throughout the move he said to stick with BTC until 60% even if it takes longer than he initially anticipated
4) He’s now making alt recommendations. Even suggested there was an opportunity in XRP due to the double bottom literally days before it took off.
I’m obviously a biased, paying member of ITC but your list of Ben’s “predictions” is largely irrelevant to his actionable content.