Israels Trump-Wahn: Warum Netanjahus Ambition, den Nahen Osten neu zu gestalten, wahrscheinlich kein Erfolg sein wird

[SS from essay by Shalom Lipner, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative of the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs. From 1990 to 2016, he served seven consecutive premiers at the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem.]

Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election could not have come at a better time for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. More than 13 months since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terrorist attack, Israel finds itself on a roll. Since the beginning of the year, Israel has assassinated much of the senior leadership of both Hamas and Hezbollah, decimated their ranks, and conducted precision strikes in Iran. At home, after seeing his approval rating hit rock bottom following October 7, Netanyahu has watched his popularity start to rebound.

Now [Netanyahu](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/tags/benjamin-netanyahu) and his government see a rare opportunity for a comprehensive realignment of the Middle East. Resisting calls for a truce, Netanyahu—with potent stimulus from his extreme right flank—is pledging to double down on his pursuit of “total victory,” however long that might take. In addition to continuing the Gaza war and laying the groundwork for a protracted Israeli security presence in the northern part of the Gaza Strip, this narrative involves imposing a new order on Lebanon; neutralizing Iran’s proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen; and ultimately, eliminating the Islamic Republic’s nuclear threat. Some members of Netanyahu’s governing coalition also aspire to bury the prospects of a two-state solution forever. At the same time, Netanyahu thinks that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries will eventually agree to normalization with Israel. And with Trump returning to the White House, the prime minister is confident that the United States will support him.