China-Indien-Beziehungen sollen in der Ära Trump 2.0 widerstandsfähiger sein

SS: Writing for the Lowy Institute, Daniel Balazs highlights recent signs of rapprochement between China and India, but the implications for India-U.S. relations cast a troubling shadow. Despite decades of U.S. support to counterbalance China, recent developments, such as a border patrol agreement between Beijing and New Delhi, suggest a potential erosion of Washington’s influence in the region. While Balazs underscores the economic pragmatism driving India to recalibrate its ties with China, it is hard to overlook how this shift may strain its strategic partnership with the United States. As Beijing seizes the opportunity to exploit India’s vulnerabilities and foster economic interdependence, the trust underpinning India-U.S. relations could falter. The incoming Trump administration, with its history of punitive tariffs and transactional policies, may exacerbate these tensions, pushing New Delhi further toward Beijing. While Balazs stops short of painting a grim picture, it is my view that such developments signal a precarious future for India-U.S. ties, threatening to upend decades of careful collaboration and leaving Washington scrambling to regain its foothold in the region.

I think that China and India strengthening ties would probably be very strategically beneficial for both of them. China is in need of a new consumer market with the US shutting itself away, and perhaps new markets to expand into in terms of having workers given the demographic issues, and India could definitely benefit from Chinese investment and economic guidance given China’s experience at turning a massive, poor country into an industrially and economically dominant country. I think India’s current goals of being a power in its own right will prevent it from just being fully dominated from China, but if both countries act intelligently they can prevent any rivalries or competition between them from diminishing the benefits.