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7 Comments
With news that the Russians informed Washington of their ICBM/IRBM launch I’m just glad there’s a modicum of sanity left somewhere.
**Ivan Diakonov, [Ukrainska Pravda](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/11/22/7485761/)**:
*[ISW] Analysts believe that Putin’s 21 November statement proves that Moscow’s escalation rhetoric largely amounts to empty threats.*
**November 21 assessment, [ISW](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-21-2024)**:
*[…] Putin’s November 21 statement demonstrates that Moscow’s constant saber-rattling largely remains rhetorical.*
*Putin’s recent threats against the West have centered on Western states allowing Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes into “Russian territory,” but Ukrainian forces have been striking what the Kremlin illegally defines as “Russian territory” for a long time.*
*The Kremlin has illegally defined occupied Crimea as part of Russia since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, and Ukrainian forces have routinely struck Crimea with US-provided ATACMS and UK-provided Storm Shadow missiles since April 2023.[7]*
*The Kremlin’s application of its “red lines” rhetoric has been wildly inconsistent, undermining the overall Russian escalation narrative.[8] Putin consistently escalates the war on his own without regard to Western decisions and has consistently declined to retaliate every time Western states have deepened their support of Ukraine.*
*Putin previously threatened severe retaliation if Western states provided Ukraine with rocket artillery, tanks, warplanes, and the ability to strike into Russia, and Putin has constantly shifted the goalposts every time the West has called Putin’s bluff. […]*
I just want to point out that inconsistent and erratic aren’t necessarily bad qualities if you’re trying to come across as an unhinged lunatic who might just start a nuclear war. It’s not a rational act so calm, measured responses aren’t really selling your story. They want to invoke that fear that he’s almost certainly bluffing… but what if he’s not?
>Putin be runnin his mouth and talkin some shit, but he a bitch
– ISW
24.02.2022 and 21.11.2024 TV-threats by Ptin sounded quite similar. More Storm Shadow and Atacms!
The only red line that matters is the border of Ukraine’s territory, which muscovy breached in 2012. Everything else is just annoying barking of a dog that should be removed before it craps too much on Ukraine’s property.
Russian red lines are worthless. If Russia actually followed though on a threat to the west, there would only be one winner.