Das Paradox der israelischen Abschreckung: Wie eine Kampagne gegen die Hisbollah die Hemmungen Irans abbauen könnte

[SS from essay by Carrie A. Lee,  Chair of the Department of National Security and Strategy and Director of the Civil-Military Relations Center at the U.S. Army War College. The views expressed here are her own.]

Last April, it appeared as though escalation between Israel and Iran could plunge the entire Middle East into conflict. Israel’s strikes on the Iranian consulate in Damascus prompted Iran to retaliate by launching a barrage of missiles and rockets into Israel—the first time that Iran had openly attacked the country. But after Israel responded in a relatively muted way, both countries moved on from the confrontation. Observers, too, put aside their most acute worries, comforted by the fact that both countries had shown that they had no interest in a wider war.

This conclusion, however, was premature. In September, Israel intensified its campaign against [Hezbollah](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/tags/hezbollah), the Iranian-backed paramilitary group operating in Lebanon. This marked an important shift: it suggests that Israeli leaders decided they wanted to actively reshape the balance of power in the Middle East. Much more than its actions in Gaza, Israel’s war against Hezbollah threatens Iran’s ability to project power and profoundly diminishes its ability to deter Israeli interventions into its own domestic politics and nuclear program. The weakening of Iran’s position will benefit Israelis in the short term. But in the long term, it will significantly increase the risk of a regional war and even the likelihood that Iran will acquire nuclear weapons. To avoid being dragged into yet more conflict in the Middle East, the United States must work to restrain further Israeli action and stabilize the balance of power.