Chinas Emissionen haben inzwischen mehr globale Erwärmung verursacht als die EU

China’s historical emissions within its borders have now caused more global warming than the 27 member states of the EU combined, according to new Carbon Brief analysis.

The findings come amid fraught negotiations at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where negotiators have been invoking the “principle of [historical responsibility](https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-are-historically-responsible-for-climate-change/)” in their discussions over who should pay money towards a [new goal](https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop29-what-is-the-new-collective-quantified-goal-on-climate-finance/) for climate finance – and how much.

Carbon Brief’s analysis shows that 94% of the global [carbon budget](https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-what-the-tiny-remaining-1-5c-carbon-budget-means-for-climate-policy/) for 1.5C has now been used up, as cumulative emissions since 1850 have reached 2,607bn tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2).

While developed countries have used the majority of this budget, the analysis shows that China’s historical emissions reached 312GtCO2 in 2023, overtaking the EU’s 303GtCO2.

China is still far behind the 532GtCO2 emitted by the US, however, according to the analysis.

Indeed, China is unlikely to ever overtake the US contribution to global warming, based on current policies, committed plans and technology trends in both countries. This is even before accounting for the potential [emissions-boosting](https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-trump-election-win-could-add-4bn-tonnes-to-us-emissions-by-2030/) policies of the [incoming](https://www.carbonbrief.org/experts-what-does-a-trump-presidency-mean-for-climate-action/) Trump presidency.

In addition, China’s 1.4 billion people are each responsible for 227tCO2, a third of the 682tCO2 linked to the EU’s 450 million citizens – and far below the 1,570tCO2 per capita in the US.

The new analysis follows Carbon Brief’s 2021 analysis of [historical responsibility](https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-are-historically-responsible-for-climate-change/), based on emissions taking place within each country’s present-day borders or considering emissions embedded in imports. Further analysis in 2023 assigned responsibility to [colonial rulers](https://www.carbonbrief.org/revealed-how-colonial-rule-radically-shifts-historical-responsibility-for-climate-change/).

China’s population is much larger than all of Europe so it would only be normal.

I mean, so much of that is from and for companies in the EU (and the US) so while China has their fingerprints on the emissions, there is plenty of blame to go around

Well, considering China’s share in global manufacturing output – isn’t that surprising at all. Wonder how ratios would have looked like if all emissions caused by manufacturing of all direct and indirect import goods were accounted respectively as of ones of endpoint consumers.

And China is investing massively into reducing their carbon footprint, building 150 new nuclear plants until 2035, when they will have far less emissions than both EU and the US.