ATACMS auf russischem Boden führt nicht zur Eskalation. Es ist die angemessene Antwort auf Putins Aggression.

Welcome to the [Peanut Gallery](https://www.nuttyspectacle.com/)!

As most of you know, I use the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) daily reports as my primary source, but the ISW phoned in a rehash of yesterday’s news, so I’ve got very little to work with on the Ukrainian front. Today’s Peanut Gallery will be light as a result.

Please remember that I know nothing.

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**[Ukraine:](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-18-2024)**

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>Russian officials continued to use threatening rhetoric as part of efforts to deter the United States from publicly authorizing Ukraine’s use of US-provided ATACMS in limited strikes against Russian and North Korean military targets in Kursk Oblast. This US authorization, if officially confirmed, would notably be a mild response to Russia’s escalatory introduction of North Korean troops as active combatants in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

I had a disturbing conversation with a friend today. It turns out he’s 100 percent onboard with the United States’ support for Ukraine. He’s afraid, perhaps somewhat justifiably, of nuclear war, and expressed how he doesn’t see the link between Ukraine’s independence and his own peace and security. In his words “Putin wants Ukraine, not NATO.” I had difficulty convincing him that Ukraine’s fight was our fight, that freedom for one nation means greater freedom for all, that Putin is madman who won’t stop at Ukraine. I failed in my efforts, and he walked away from the conversation believing the exact same thing he believed when he entered.

Isolationism is thick here in the United States. It’s a philosophy predicated upon fear, upon myopic self-interest. And it’s pernicious. There is no appetite for war here in the States. I regret to inform the world that many of my countrymen will tremble and yield when threatened. It takes a President with a willingness to face that fear, to confront Russian threats of nuclear fire and know when and where to push.

Biden is doing that with ATACMS. It might not be as fast as we want, and the restriction to Kursk Oblast is downright ridiculous, but it is happening, slowly, and we’re doing it in such a way where we can feel confident in our own security. This is how an adult defuses a bomb. Notice that other nations follow the United States’ lead. Few are willing to be first to climb a rung on the escalation ladder. They all wait for America to go first.

Will Trump demonstrate that same leadership? I have my doubts. The man subscribes to an isolationist mindset, and I believe him to be a coward at heart. We cannot expect the same courage from a man who spends his life looking exclusively after his self-interest. He prays at the altar of greed, it’s what motivates him, and to him duty and honor are foreign gods.

Isolationism will only worsen the situation. Escalations like bringing North Korea in as a cobelligerent are only the beginning.

>Putin’s introduction of North Korea as a new belligerent in his invasion of Ukraine was a major escalation. Allowing Ukraine to use US missiles against legitimate military targets in Russian territory in accord with all international laws and laws of armed conflict is a very limited response and cannot reasonably be characterized as an escalation in itself.

You’re preaching to the choir, ISW. We have a duty to respond to Russia’s escalation with our own, yet we’re moving slowly and methodically when it feels like time is short. I want to see Ukraine given freedom to fire with Storm Shadow & ATACMS on Russian territory before December. Biden can’t leave the restriction in place for the Trump administration.

I know the risk. I know nukes could fly at any moment. I know that our world is balanced on a knife’s edge. But there are some risks you just must take. This is one of them. And we have to take it quickly.

Give Ukraine what it needs to target rear echelon military targets, planes and helicopters and artillery, so that Russia will stop taking advantage of our weakness. Putin is just as scared of death as the rest of us, more so in my thinking, and we have the power to put the fear of God into him. Make it clear that he continues to live and breathe by our grace, that decapitation strikes are very much a thing, and maybe he’ll stop escalating. Turn the tables and make him afraid. Seriously, if random members of Putin’s inner circle start turning up dead each time he does something depraved then he’ll be too terrified to escalate.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk.

>French and British sources clarified on November 18 that the reported US permissions regarding Ukraine’s ability to use ATACMS for limited strikes within Russia do not inherently extend to Ukraine’s ability to use French and UK-provided SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles for long-range strikes in Russia.

Bad news! The Le Figaro report we were talking about yesterday which mentioned France and United Kingdom were planning on lifting the ban on Storm Shadows and SCALP missiles in Russian territory appears to be false! They aren’t ruling it out, but it doesn’t appear to be in the cards yet. I’m thinking they’re waiting to see how Russia responds to ATACMS first.

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>Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Head off the Department of Combating Crimes Committed in Conditions of Armed Conflict, Yuri Bilousov, reported on November 1 that Russian forces have executed at least 109 Ukrainian POWs since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 and that Russian forces have intensified the number of POW executions they commit in 2024.

[Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.](https://u24.gov.ua/)

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‘Q’ for the Community:

* We talk a lot about how Putin’s nuclear threats aren’t real, but we never talk about when they will become real. What do you think it will take to get Putin to go nuclear?

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* Join the conversation on /r/TheNuttySpectacle!