Gibt es bereits einen umfassenden Krieg im Nahen Osten?

[SS from the essay by Kenneth M. Pollack, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. During the Clinton administration, he served on the National Security Council as Director for Persian Gulf Affairs.]

Of course, that war is already underway. Iran has launched two direct attacks on Israel, while Israel has carried out one strike in response and is almost certainly preparing a second. A half dozen Iranian allies and proxies have attacked Israel, including in terrorist assaults; Israel has assassinated a passel of key Iranian leaders; and both sides have carried out cyber strikes.

So the real question is not what a war between Iran and Israel would look like but what an expanded conflict between them might entail. The answer, in essence, is this: more of what is happening right now, just with increased intensity. That is because both sides face significant material and strategic obstacles that make an imagined all-out war between them unlikely.