Armenien verurteilt den Angriff auf das UNIFIL-Hauptquartier im Libanon

>“Armenia as a contributing country to UNIFIL, firmly denounces the targeting of the headquarters of UNIFIL, entrusted to foster stability in accordance with relevant UN Security Council resolutions,” the Armenian Foreign Ministry said in a post on Twitter.

>Israeli forces fired at an observation post belonging to the UNIFIL peacekeeping force at its main base at Naqoura in southern Lebanon on Friday, wounding two people, a UN source said.

Israel has demanded UNIFIL to leave. Which the UN has said no. And they probably won’t

in my opinion I think that the deliberate targeting of the headquarters is because they want the UN to get involved, to enforce the resolution, and for Israel to fall back in a “Oh look, the UN is telling us we can’t attack oh no, so sad”.

Since I am drawing direct parallels with what happened in 2006, when Israel (even by Israeli admission, security cabinet fired, admission of all operations failing, no objectives achieved) got quite literally fucked. And simply retreated when the UN gave them “pressure”, because they just couldn’t admit that they not only failed, but could not really continue a war against an army that is not made of children.

This is the second time they are firing in 2 days.

if on the off chance UNIFIL does retreat, Israel probably has a scorched earth operations in mind.

For those wondering why Israel would want the invasion into Lebanon to stop, here’s some Israeli experts tldr’s I’ve done to help:

Estimates show that around 11,000 soldiers have been wounded (more than a third have limb injuries, the others have spine, eye, ears…) and 728 are confirmed dead. According to this particular article written by an Israeli military expert in Hebrew https://m.calcalist.co.il/Article.aspx?guid=40149210

The author claims that the army is exhausted. Says around 1000 Israeli soldiers are injured per month **with only the war in Gaza** (for context, this is both the longest war and the highest casualty war of Israel)

>it is on the order of magnitude of 12 battalions lost.

The main issue now contemplating the Israeli army is the fact that the reserve army sent to the north is tired, and new soldiers are needed.

And the main point of contention currently is **the draft of the ultra Orthodox Jews**:

>The government did not bother to supplement the number of soldiers that the war took away from the IDF’s military base by recruiting available young men who, even in these days of emergency, spend their time in yeshiva. Instead of recruiting them by virtue of the order of the hour, it conducts itself in political sleight of hand in order to continue exempting them from conscription, all out of fear for the peace of the coalition. The peak of the record was about two weeks ago, when Netanyahu was about to fire Defense Minister Yoav Galant and replace him with Gideon Sa’ar to allow the continuation of the mass evasion.

Since most of the reserves are already doing their 3rd or 4th tour.

He also claims that the war has also worn out many of its own weaponry, and a new front will only increase the repairing needed that was already at full capacity.

in another article written yesterday by the same guy, he says that 4 of 6 reserve brigades have only been recruited the past week, while the others are already in their 4th tour. In this article, he still believes that the government will still exempt the ultra-orthodox even with the IDF’s new manpower needs. https://m.calcalist.co.il/Article.aspx?guid=40162630

If i remember correctly, the amount of soldiers the Ultra-orthodox would provide is around 40k if approved.

Another Israeli military expert today said:

>think the organization is still sticking to the plan outlined by Nasrallah – he did not believe that Israel would launch an all-out war against him, and his original plan was to draw us into a prolonged war of attrition that would lead to a deep ground entry, getting bogged down in the Lebanese mud and damage to the economy and our rear.

>“Hezbollah assumes that Israel cannot endure such a situation for a long time, that it will be forced to end the war in Gaza, to reach an agreement for the return of its abductees when Hamas will continue to control the Strip and he, Hezbollah, will mark for itself another divine victory over Israel, as in 2006 and the unilateral withdrawal of The IDF from southern Lebanon in 2000.”

And when asked why Hezbollah is not using its “terrifying arsenal” which was the reason why Israel did not conduct operations against them, his opinion for the reason it hasn’t happened was:

>“It didn’t happen and let’s hope it won’t either. But the fact that the scenario of hundreds of missiles to the rear has not materialized until now does not mean that it will not materialize in the future.”