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6 Comments
Data: football-data.co.uk
Tools: matplotlib
Blog post: https://soccrbets.com/premier-league-shots-conceded/
The headline and the graph say different things.
What day range? This season so far?
The small sample size makes this incredibly misleading. For example, Liverpool have played only one other top-half team so far, and Arsenal conceded 1/3 of both their shots and shots on target in a single game as a result of an atypical game state.
It’ll be another dozen games at least before the sample size is enough to observe meaningful trends.
I think this is interesting.
First were in the top 10 defendes so it’s a little misleading or cause for a false alarm.
Second were fifth in expected goals against
We’re also tied for 5th with a lot of other clubs in actual goals if that makes sense.
Just looking at those stats along with the graph tells us more about what type of chances we’re giving up. It seems like we’re giving up rather low quality chances while Tottenham gives up less chances but of higher quality.
Really I’m not sure if this graph means anything specifically about us. Other stats might be more meaningful in telling us the same thing
I would suggest a few edits to make the plot more meaningful:
1. Include all 20 clubs. If you want to make a point about the top half being different, you could gray out the bottom half.
2. Make the club logos smaller. They are too big and make it hard to draw meaning from the plot.
3. Add a trend line to make it easier to see deviations from expectations.
4. Consider other information you could add. For example: plot data from last year (or some other historical time point) and draw conclusions from that. What is the important thing to take away? Is “% of shots conceded that are on target” a meaningful predictor of table position in May? Or are the absolute number of shots conceded or on target shots conceded predictive of position? If so, you could consider plotting just that one statistic against table position to show outliers and how this stat may predict a club’s rise or fall for the rest of the campaign. Or possibly plot the meaningful statistic for this nascent campaign against last year to show how a particular club may be doing better or worse.