„Nichts anderes als die völlige Niederlage von Putins Armee in der Ukraine kann uns eine Chance bieten. Wir bekämpfen ein imperiales Virus. Wir brauchen eine schockierende Niederlage, nichts weniger als die ukrainische Flagge in Sewastropol. Die Russen müssen erkennen, dass das Imperium tot ist.“ Garry Kasparov, Schachmeister und Putin-Kritiker.
https://x.com/TVPWorld_com/status/1841739613976555790
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The serf mentality and blind obedience is learned behavior. The Tsars deeply culturally ingrained this over several centuries to rule over the population. The system is deeply sick. The lies and propaganda have long become commonplace and systemic. No one can really tell the difference between fact and fiction in this totalitarian state anymore. Russia has become the longest authoritarian project in human history.
There is obviously something in human beings that responds to this totalitarian system. Human beings are compelled to live within a lie. But they can be compelled to do so only because they are, in fact, capable of living in this way. Therefore, not only does the system alienate humanity, but at the same time, alienated humanity supports this system as its own involuntary masterplan, as a degenerate image of its own degeneration. As a record of people’s own failure as responsible individuals.” Vaclav Havel
“Individuals who were willing to live within the truth even when things were at their worst could have as well been poets, painters, musicians or simply ordinary citizens who were able to maintain their human dignity. One thing, however, seems clear: “The attempt at political reform was not the cause of society’s reawakening, but rather the final outcome of that re awakening.” Vaclav Havel
Attempts to transform the Russian Federation into a nation state, a civic state, or a stable imperial state have failed. The current structure is based on brittle historical foundations, possesses no unified national identity, whether civic or ethnic, and exhibits persistent struggles between nationalists, imperialists, centralists, liberals and federalists Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the imposition of stifling international economic sanctions will intensify and accelerate the process of state rupture.
Russia’s failure has been exacerbated by an inability to ensure economic growth (stagnation), stark socio-economic inequalities and demographic defects, widening disparities between Moscow and its diverse federal subjects, a precarious political pyramid (vertical of power) based on personalism and clientelism, deepening distrust of government institutions, increasing public alienation from a corrupt ruling elite, and growing disbelief in official propaganda (manipulated reality propaganda). More intensive repression to maintain state integrity in deteriorating economic condition (sanctions, Dutch disease, failure to innovate and diversify, reverse industrialisation, massive deficit, ruble collapse, lack of sufficient trained personnel) will raise the prospects for violent [internal or external] conflicts.
Burgjarski, Failed State, a guide to Russia’s rupture (Book cover)
Russia will fall apart eventually and NATO will pay for the funeral. What will happen to the people currently living in that space is anybody’s guess. Part of them might become Chinese vassals. Yet others might go back to being farmers and live off the land again. Some parts might be integrated into the West (Kaliningrad, for example) and the rest? I really don’t know.
The anti-Putin opposition has fled for the most part. Many young and educated Russians have fled in several emigration waves. The West won’t take in a couple of million Russian refugees on top of those we have taken in already. Therefore, another iron wall seems like a very likely outcome to me.
I hope that Russia suffers a defeat so bad that the country is forced to question itself and so that Putin is overthrown and Russia can reinvent itself from within. In its current state, Russia is not compatible with the 21st century. Sergei Medvedev, Russian historian
We must do everything we can to ensure that Russia will lose its imperial war as completely and thoroughly as possible. You cannot shame the shameless, and you cannot dishonor those that have no honor.
Otherwise, the cycle can not be broken, and the next wave of Russian males will die in another imperial war for nothing but their absolute leader 20 years from now.
“The only way that empires in Europe have transitioned into becoming the rule of law states is by losing their last imperial war.
An analysis of the history of empire would lead to the conclusion that we must help Russia lose its imperial war. This would be good for the people who Russia is oppressing and whose existence Russia is denying. This defeat would be good for these people and for Russia itself.” Timothy Snyder
“Nothing but the total defeat of Putin’s army can give **us** a chance….”
who is Kasparov’s “us”?
Kasparov, while generally a good guy, basically does not care about Ukraine or Ukrainians. He fundamentally cares about Russia. His “us” is Russians. He wants to see his country of Russia in a better condition, without putin. This is admirable. You also probably want to live in a world where there is a russia without Putin. I also want to live in the world where the russian imperial mind virus is dead and putin is forced to live in a zoo eating the corn out of gorilla shit.
As it now stands, unfortunately, Ukraine does not have anywhere near the ability to fight back the russian invaders to the 1991 borders, dezombify the occupy populations, secure the border, and give Russia such a knockout blow that russia will lose all dreams of empire for all time. This is as obvious as obvious can be to anybody who knows anything about the current state of ukraine, its economy, its manpower, and its weapons.
So, if we all want that knockout blow to Russia – which is almost comical to discuss as russia continues to advance – there needs to be a quantum leap in military assistance to ukraine. Airpower will help, but itself won’t do much. And, unless you are prepared to send western troops, you’ll be asking the well motivated but extremely tired Ukrainian forces to do this.
Moreover, the civilians suffering through energy cuts and worse because of this will not be kasparov’s family or yours – it will be Ukrainians’.
What I am saying is that it’s **UKRAINE’S CHOICE ALONE** as to what path they take. Kasparov is in practice asking them to bear the pain and do the work for the benefit of the world and of the russia he envisions. Because lord knows by in large the bulk of the cowardly russians abroad arent doing it. And if Ukraine decides that’s too much for them to bear, then that’s their own sovereign choice to make. Not for me, not for kasparov, and not for some rando redditor who views the ukraine war as a morality play. Ukraine has more than earned the right to do things as they see fit.
100% agree. Only a total defeat and humiliation can ‘reset’ the Russian psyche.