[OC] Geschätzte Wahlbeteiligungswahrscheinlichkeit nach Landkreisen für die bevorstehende Wahl (Datagotchi 2024 US-Wahlen, n = 6.228) unter Verwendung von mehrstufiger Regression und Poststratifizierung

We’re looking at you Texas.

As a Connecticut resident, I’m curious as to why CT is such an outlier in the Northeast region. Is this a data issue, or is CT voter turnout an actual outlier?

Curious for Texas: Why, in a election where the GOP keeps hammering about “the open border” and how terrible it is and in a super red state (rural areas) is the literal texas-mexico border “super less likely to vote” than almost everywhere else?

What is turnout probability? Is it supposed to measure how many people will vote compared to registered voters, citizens, eligible voters, residents, or what?

Estimated turnout probability? Probability of what? 90% chance of 90% turnout?

I find it hard to believe that turnout is expected to be at 90% in some places. The US had an average of 66.7% turnout in 2020. Minnesota being the highest at 80%. Even if we assume that turnout will be higher in 24′ (although I doubt that), this chart is expecting about an 80-85% turnout across most of the country. I do not think this is accurate at all.

Please, prove me wrong though.