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    Nach Berechnungen eines prominenten Datenwissenschaftlers hat Harris einen Vorsprung von 66 Wahlmännerstimmen vor Trump


    Nach Berechnungen eines prominenten Datenwissenschaftlers hat Harris einen Vorsprung von 66 Wahlmännerstimmen vor Trump

    https://fortune.com/2024/10/03/kamala-harris-trump-latest-polls-swing-states/

    View 46 Comments

    46 Comments

    2. Virbillion on

      our elections are so broken, we need scientists to study the data to project likely outcomes. in a democracy, popularity is meaningless because unpopulated states have outsized representation. so, it’s a given that the democrat will win the popular vote by a landslide as america is overwhelmingly liberal. but we have to do complicated bad faith math and backroom deals with electors. and never mind the for profit entertainment industry of modern political polling that each frame and plant their data so as to drive the reaction based algorithms their profits depend on. and don’t even get me started on agitation pundits that have created a multi billion dollar industry on pissing you off, staring with furrowed brows angrily lying into a camera to drive ad sales.

    3. macbanan on

      And you can have a 66 electoral votes lead with 100 votes or 1 million votes.

    4. User4C4C4C on

      Her opponent is apparently a walking crime spree so hopefully that lead of hers will increase. Vote.

    5. 19Chris96 on

      66 would be insane. It would make Trmp’s blood boil, and scare him at the same time, because he knows there would be no contesting that bad of a loss.

    6. CheeseOnMyFingies on

      Cue the vast majority of this sub not actually reading the article and just frantically telling each other to vote when this is one of the most high-voting subs on Reddit lol

      It’s actually a decent article. While betting sites don’t always get elections right (PredictIt was way off in 2022), the scientist in question notes that polls are often insufficient and Harris’ lead has remained constant since the debate.

    7. CrotchoMan on

      Strictly hypothetical until we all cast our votes. Early voting everywhere should start this month.

    8. Gogs85 on

      I’m going out to the polls either way. I don’t just want to beat him, I want to DESTROY him. I want to send a message to him and everyone that’s enabled him.

    9. WheresWaldo562 on

      The fact that this election is even close is just fucking pathetic… he’s a convicted felon, cultists gonna cult

    11. RandySto on

      Hopefully she can pick up steam and finish even stronger. I do not believe that any human being can govern perfectly, but the other party has become a cult of stupidity

    15. Dariawasright on

      Don’t believe any predictions. Go and vote blue all the way down. The Republicans refused to appoint any of Obama’s judges and then lost the popular vote and appointed all of Trump’s judges, who preceded to give him the power of a King. This needs to be undone or there will never be a real election again.

    16. Ulthanon on

      The fuck does this guy think she’s gonna do, flip Texas?

      I mean, their mouth to God’s ears, but I would not expect that.

    17. jarchack on

      Trump could be committed to a psychiatric unit tomorrow and the race would still end up being a nailbiter.

    18. WackyBones510 on

      Closed the article when I saw this:

      >Instead, the Northwestern University professor deploys a framework based on the betting odds set by folks wagering their dollars not on the candidate they intend to vote for, but the one they expect to win.

      It’s a coin flip race. Vote.

    19. autotldr on

      This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://fortune.com/2024/10/03/kamala-harris-trump-latest-polls-swing-states/) reduced by 94%. (I’m a bot)
      *****
      > From now until Election Day, Miller is posting the projected electoral vote totals for the two candidates in real time; he updates the numbers shortly after the PredictIT prices change, on his website The Virtual Tout.

      > As of 11 AM on October 2, Miller has Harris-Walz leading Trump-Vance by 302 to 236, a substantial bulge of 66 electoral votes.

      > By basic electoral math, says Miller, Harris as of today holds a lock on most of the big swing states, looking like a sure winner in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

      *****
      [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/1fv7sp3/harris_holds_a_66_electoral_vote_lead_over_trump/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ “Version 2.02, ~694594 tl;drs so far.”) | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr “PM’s and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome.”) | *Top* *keywords*: **Miller**^#1 **vote**^#2 **Harris**^#3 **Trump**^#4 **electoral**^#5

    21. LesterKnoppf12 on

      Didn’t they say something similar for Hilary? The pessimist in me is skeptical.

    22. OkCommunity1625 on

      Fuck that vote anyway. Hillary was supposed to win in a landslide and lost. Joe was supposed to win in a landslide and it was close

    23. Scottydog2 on

      Please vote. Personally, I am voting for stability (economic and geopolitical), the rights of my daughters to freely consult with their doctors, and the preservation of democracy. We can take nothing for granted.

    24. TitleVisual6666 on

      What the fuck is this article? It’s an ad for a gambling website.

    26. grimace24 on

      Another day, another prediction. Polls could say Harris 75%, Trump 25% or vice versa I still wouldn’t believe them. Vote!

    30. Scottiths on

      This is hopeful. However complacency is how the weird old felon got elected in 2016. Not only that, but Harris needs to win in a massive landslide so the GOP can’t have any hope of just stealing the election like in bush v gore.

      Also, just think about the narcissistic injury you would be dealing to trump if it was a massive landslide for Harris!

      Please, everyone vote. Don’t assume it’s safe and your vote doesn’t count. Every single vote for Harris will show Weird old Felon guy just how disliked he is!

    31. RevolutionaryMind439 on

      I voted in PA! My ballot has been received by the county!

    32. istillambaldjohn on

      Foreshadowing here. It’s not going to matter. He’s already poised and has dropped seeds of doubt about the legitimacy of all battle ground states so he can file a lawsuit to challenge the results. He has a plan outside of winning legitimately.

      He wants to tie up the votes in courts and extend the cases to exceed 1/6/25 where it would go to legislature to decide who won. I wouldn’t say “he” is doing this, but more Trumps “handlers”.

      Arizona is the most recent. A few months ago they filed suit stating that az wasn’t following the law regarding proof of citizenship. Then found that there were a number of voters who at the time the dot had different requirements to obtain a license but would be able to register to vote. This week, they stated over 200k voters have not been validated. They have been sitting on this for months. It’s intentionally filed too close to the voter registration date (10/7), and no way to flush out which voters need to re-register in time, nor enable any way to change our election process to flush out who needs to prove their citizenship. It’s not about the legitimacy of the claim. It’s the doubt. Now it’s going to be Trump wins or a lawsuit is filed stating that the vote is invalid and the courts will side with him.

      I’m not afraid of a fair election. I’m afraid of a Trump election.

    35. Nago31 on

      That’s it? We better get out and vote to widen that gap in November

    36. Soren_Camus1905 on

      I have a horrible gut feeling that this election is going to be pure chaos.

      And it is all because there were no material consequences dealt after 2020.

    37. MagicSPA on

      Don’t get complacent. Don’t assume it’s in the bag.

      Get out and vote. Not just to win the election, but to **crush** the entire Trump/MAGA movement.

    38. HockeyBalboa on

      Right but he’s not factoring in GOP cheating and legal tricks.

    40. devil1fish on

      Please god let this be true, but also please get out and go vote to make it reality

    42. Careful-Moose-6847 on

      270.

      That’s all that matters. It’s not like you lose or gain electoral votes one at a time. We need to get past this concept of it being a “race” There’s no “lead”

      When he recalculates and now it’s a 12 point lead, or a 1 point lead, or she’s down 25! are you going to feel discouraged? If so. Stop paying attention to this stuff. It’s all marketing. I know this guy is doing it differently but it’s all the same.

      Just vote like it matters. Vote like you’re personally choosing the next president.

    44. ravens40 on

      I hope this port strike and middle east turmoil doesn’t hurt Harris. I’m a little worried.

    45. almighty_smiley on

      These polls are like stocks: even the brightest and most educated mind can only project an educated guess, and there’s no way to truly tell which way the wind will blow until it’s blowing.

      Vote.

    46. Intrepid_Chemical517 on

      YALL DONT READ INTO THIS – VOTE. Bring a friend, bring 20. Vote vote vote.

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