Even that one poll is meaningful. The way to break the Democratic voter apathy in Texas is to demonstrate that they _can_ win. Once that happens, the floodgates will open.
Zorak9379 on
That’s more like it.
efequalma on
It’s what can happen when voters grow tired of performative politics taking priority over real leadership.
No-Attitude-6049 on
Beat Ted then deport him to Mexico 🇲🇽
reddit_is_tarded on
please let it happen. i would kiss the star on the capitol floor
SpeakAgainAncient1 on
Very surprising, traditionally a politician who gives the middle finger to his constituency and abandons them while in a crisis usually plays well in this state. They also like guys who allow people to insult their wives and afterward kiss that person’s orange ass.
Maybe Texas isn’t as backward as the GOP is banking on? Who would have thunk it?
Cole41489 on
If he does beat him, it will be extremely close. Close enough for the Texas GOP to cheat and throw the election to Ted. Fuck their truly evil and reprehensible humans.
skunkachunks on
I took a look at 2018, when Beto lost by 2.5pts, and not a single October poll showed a Beto lead. In fact, the only poll that showed him up more than a point was by Ipsos in early/mid September. They also pretty correctly predicted Betos 9pt beating in 2022 for Governor.
Now, I recognize it is still mid sept, and this could be that outlier poll as well.
However, my point is that polls showing D leads in Texas for senate would make this a race that is much more D favorable than 2018 or 2022 governor. It’s not like Beto was getting +1 polling and then lost.
The biggest thing about all the 2024 TX senate polling IMO is that a solid 10% seem to be undecided across polls. How those people break will define this election given how many there are.
Are they hardcore Trump voters that aren’t sold on Cruz but will vote straight ticket if they show up? Are they soft Trump voters that will stay home bc they’re unenthusiastic about both? Are they Cruz haters that just don’t know enough about Allred and are persuadable?
Given how known of an entity Cruz is, this high level of undecideds must have some reservations on him.
Right now my slightly unscientific average of the last 3 538 polls indicates a 44D-46R race. A 60/40 break on undecideds would turn this into a photo finish on election night.
That would be awesome, but it would still shock me if Allred beat Cruz.
BareNakedSole on
If given the choice between Kamala beating Trump or finally having Ted Cruz on the unemployment line, I’m not sure which one I would choose.
MMmhmmmmmmmmmm on
Fuck Fled Cruz, that treasonous bastard.
TrooperJohn on
This is… not Newsweek. That’s good.
It’s just one poll, but it fits in with other polling showing a close race. Which dovetails with Cruz accepting a debate — safe incumbents don’t usually do so.
Paxton cranking voter suppression into overdrive is another indication that the race is close and winnable for Allred.
Cruz getting kicked out of the Senate would be a fine prize.
Adventurous-Pen-8261 on
I don’t see this happening in the very near future, but: you wanna get rid of the electoral college? Turn TX blue for 2+ election cycles. Republicans would have to reconsider the EC. Although I guess the far more likely response would be to ramp up voter suppression, lies and do more coup attempts.
Duxyman on
I doubt it’ll be blue for the presidency, Texas suppresses the vote way too hard, there would need to be a larger margin to overcome it. But I can definitely see Cruz losing. He’s disliked by many in Texas.
toodleroo on
God I hope so
Gator1508 on
It Texas flips blue then the Republican Party will be truly dead. We are talking a blue house, senate, and White House.
24 Comments
If this happens I will visit Texas to personally thank voters.
Hell ya. I’m rooting for you, Colin!
https://colinallred.com/
Ted cruz is morally unfit to be a politician
Even that one poll is meaningful. The way to break the Democratic voter apathy in Texas is to demonstrate that they _can_ win. Once that happens, the floodgates will open.
That’s more like it.
It’s what can happen when voters grow tired of performative politics taking priority over real leadership.
Beat Ted then deport him to Mexico 🇲🇽
please let it happen. i would kiss the star on the capitol floor
Very surprising, traditionally a politician who gives the middle finger to his constituency and abandons them while in a crisis usually plays well in this state. They also like guys who allow people to insult their wives and afterward kiss that person’s orange ass.
Maybe Texas isn’t as backward as the GOP is banking on? Who would have thunk it?
If he does beat him, it will be extremely close. Close enough for the Texas GOP to cheat and throw the election to Ted. Fuck their truly evil and reprehensible humans.
I took a look at 2018, when Beto lost by 2.5pts, and not a single October poll showed a Beto lead. In fact, the only poll that showed him up more than a point was by Ipsos in early/mid September. They also pretty correctly predicted Betos 9pt beating in 2022 for Governor.
Now, I recognize it is still mid sept, and this could be that outlier poll as well.
However, my point is that polls showing D leads in Texas for senate would make this a race that is much more D favorable than 2018 or 2022 governor. It’s not like Beto was getting +1 polling and then lost.
The biggest thing about all the 2024 TX senate polling IMO is that a solid 10% seem to be undecided across polls. How those people break will define this election given how many there are.
Are they hardcore Trump voters that aren’t sold on Cruz but will vote straight ticket if they show up? Are they soft Trump voters that will stay home bc they’re unenthusiastic about both? Are they Cruz haters that just don’t know enough about Allred and are persuadable?
Given how known of an entity Cruz is, this high level of undecideds must have some reservations on him.
Right now my slightly unscientific average of the last 3 538 polls indicates a 44D-46R race. A 60/40 break on undecideds would turn this into a photo finish on election night.
Texas-
We are emotionally invested in the Allred/cruz race, and we are rooting for you! In fact, this sticker was spotted here in the wild- [bumper sticker](https://www.reddit.com/r/Eugene/comments/1fj7qwi/this_man_ate_my_son/)
Love,
Oregon
That would be awesome, but it would still shock me if Allred beat Cruz.
If given the choice between Kamala beating Trump or finally having Ted Cruz on the unemployment line, I’m not sure which one I would choose.
Fuck Fled Cruz, that treasonous bastard.
This is… not Newsweek. That’s good.
It’s just one poll, but it fits in with other polling showing a close race. Which dovetails with Cruz accepting a debate — safe incumbents don’t usually do so.
Paxton cranking voter suppression into overdrive is another indication that the race is close and winnable for Allred.
File under “good data point”.
Looks like they just announced a [debate](https://www.texastribune.org/2024/09/20/ted-cruz-colin-allred-texas-senate-debate/):
>
I’m hopeful for Allred, but debates are something Cruz is pretty good at.
Texans MIGHT get smart? Hope springs eternal.
For reference in case anyone’s curious about what earlier polling was like from other pollsters: [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/texas/general/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/texas/general/)
Cruz getting kicked out of the Senate would be a fine prize.
I don’t see this happening in the very near future, but: you wanna get rid of the electoral college? Turn TX blue for 2+ election cycles. Republicans would have to reconsider the EC. Although I guess the far more likely response would be to ramp up voter suppression, lies and do more coup attempts.
I doubt it’ll be blue for the presidency, Texas suppresses the vote way too hard, there would need to be a larger margin to overcome it. But I can definitely see Cruz losing. He’s disliked by many in Texas.
God I hope so
It Texas flips blue then the Republican Party will be truly dead. We are talking a blue house, senate, and White House.
Perfect time to expand the Supreme Court.