Warum Hisbollah und Israel keine Einigung erzielen können

Hussein Ibish: “Neither Iran nor Hezbollah has much to gain from a regional conflagration or a war with Israel in Lebanon, particularly one started on behalf of Hamas. For Iran, Hezbollah is a precious asset not to be wasted. Tehran sees the militia—and its estimated 150,000 missiles and rockets, many with precision guidance—as its prime deterrent against an Israeli or American attack on its homeland or nuclear facilities, as well as a regional trump card. To expend this capacity on Gaza would be irrational from an Iranian point of view. Gaza has no strategic, religious, or historic significance to Iran …”

“So if Hezbollah doesn’t want a war, why doesn’t it accept a sensible settlement, like the one the Biden administration has spent the past year negotiating? Israel had been demanding that Hezbollah withdraw its forces and heavy equipment to about 25 kilometers, or 15 miles, away from the border; Hezbollah refused to consider this and instead insisted on an end to the Gaza war. The U.S. envoy, Amos Hochstein, reportedly proposed a compromise, with Hezbollah pulling back to seven or eight kilometers from the border rather than 25 … The proposal is eminently reasonable, but Hezbollah will never accept it.”

“To understand why, consider that the agreement that ended the Lebanese Civil War in 1989 required all warring parties to disarm. Hezbollah managed to carve out an exception, first because Israel was still occupying southern Lebanon, and later, when that was no longer the case, on the grounds that the militia would protect the border area and liberate two small towns that remained under Israeli control. This is the rather flimsy basis on which the militia group has been permitted to maintain its own army—and therefore its own foreign and defense policy, and the ability to plunge Lebanon into war at any moment, without consulting the rest of its citizens or its government.

“Any formal understanding that pulls Hezbollah back from the border threatens the rationale for its existence as an armed group within Lebanon. How can Hezbollah protect a border or liberate villages from five or so miles away? Sooner or later, someone in Lebanon would be liable to point out that if the Lebanese military or UN forces are securing the border area, Hezbollah needs to finally follow the other militia groups and disarm.”

Read more here: [https://theatln.tc/FtFbXVvA](https://theatln.tc/FtFbXVvA)

I think we’re kidding ourselves if we think either side wants a deal.