Ich sehe https://liveuamap.com/ Ab und zu und seit einigen Wochen merke ich, dass Russland an der Südostfront schnell vorrückt. Ich denke, dass es letztlich ein Fehler war, dass die Ukraine Kursk angreift und Truppen aus der Ost-/Südostfront abzieht. Russland hat viel Territorium gewonnen 🙁
Isn't Ukraine actually losing the war now?
byu/morbidnihilism ingeopolitics
6 Comments
Territory =/= winning. Ask the Germans of WWI who held French territory at armistice signing.
According to experts, Pokrovsk is the battle to watch. If captured:
1. The frontline would be pushed significantly in Russia’s favour. It’s the gateway from the Donetsk region to the Dnipro region.
2. The entire Donetsk region would be fully under Russian control.
3. Ukraine would lose a major supply hub for reinforcing troops, and lose neighbouring advantageous (elevated) terrain such as Chasiv Yar.
Ukraine is hurting very bad. The Russian is basically slow grinding the Ukrainian.
At the moment there is no hint of either side winning or losing the war.
Remember, wars are won when the opposing side *stops fighting.* There are currently no obvious developments in play which are likely to cause either side to stop fighting.
Yes, they are losing. Things have been going poorly for a year now.
It’s not as simple as territorial gains equals winning. It matters, but it’s not ALL that matters.
And to be clear, at this very moment, things aren’t looking so great for Ukraine if we’re being real. Russia’s attritional approach is, unfortunately, bearing some fruit.
But let’s say for the sake of argument that Ukraine’s goal for Kursk is all about showing the world that Russia won’t go nuclear no matter what Ukraine does, the point of which is to convince its allies, the U.S. especially, to really allow Ukraine to cut loose, lift all restrictions on their actions. Will it work? Maybe, maybe not, but the gamble might be to trade some Russian gains on the eastern front now for success in Kursk, leading to lifting of restrictions, which might be the difference between actual victory and outright loss later in Ukraine’s estimation. It’s a risk, but if that is the goal then it might be a risk they have to take.
If things keep going exactly as they are now then it does appear that Russia is heading for a massively costly win after probably several more years. The question is whether they can sustain these levels of losses for long enough. If they can, and nothing major changes, then yeah, it looks like they may kill Ukraine by a thousand papercuts – while suffering 10,000 themselves, probably dooming their own future in the process.
In a weird way, taking the handcuffs off Ukraine might be the only way to save BOTH countries… and whether it does or doesn’t, it’s simply the right thing to do. They’re fighting for their very survival and if we’re not going to get involved directly ourselves then the only moral thing to do is not stop Ukraine taking any and all steps to survive (I still favor restrictions on striking purely civilian targets, but nothing short of that should be disallowed in my view… if it’s military or even military-adjacent then it’s fair game as far as I’m concerned, wherever it is and no matter what weapons are used against it).