Vier geopolitische Umbrüche und wie man sie ausnutzen kann

At the Hudson Institute, Nadia Schadlow offers a major analysis of the current state of international politics. She places the main “disruptions” she identifies into the context of the preceding eight decades of international order. Per Schadlow the “four emerging disruptions” that will confront the next president are:

>1. An authoritarian axis is rapidly coalescing around China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, disrupting the belief that an international community has taken shape in the aftermath of the Cold War.

>2. Climate alarmism and the prohibitively expensive green transition will give way to energy sobriety, which recognizes the need for abundant, reliable, and cheap power.

>3. A new realism about trade will see beliefs about free trade cast aside in favor of addressing imbalanced trade and the mercantilist practices of countries like China.

>4. The transformational potential of artificial intelligence will affect individuals, societies, economies, and political systems in ways no one can foresee. It could be the most disruptive development of all.

In Schadlow’s analysis, these dynamics are both symptom and ongoing cause of the breakdown in international order. Drawing comparisons to President Roosevelt’s unilateral decision to heed Albert Einstein’s warning to pursue an atomic weapon, Schadlow argues that US policymakers today must not preference multilateralism over bold action in defense of US and allied national interests, when and if such decisive action is necessary.